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Internacional de Bogota v Independiente Medellin

Internacional de Bogota

01:05Upcoming

Independiente Medellin

Primera A · THU 29 OCT · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Internacional de BogotaDrawIndependiente Medellin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Independiente Medellin 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente Medellin are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Internacional de Bogota 32%, draw 28%, Independiente Medellin 40%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Internacional de Bogota v Independiente MedellinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Internacional de Bogota win32%

Draw28%

Independiente Medellin win40%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 01:05

RoundClausura · matchday 5

VenueEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Internacional de Bogota

Independiente Medellin

9Days since last match11

Last match: 21 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · independiente medellin winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Independiente Medellin a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Internacional de Bogota v Independiente Medellin~~1.20 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 17 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~12 v 7

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Internacional de Bogota win	32%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Independiente Medellin win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Internacional de Bogota or draw	60%	–	–
Internacional de Bogota clean sheet	26%	–	–
Independiente Medellin clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.6 9.8 7.2 3.3 1 8.5 13.3 8.5 3.9 2 5.5 7.5 5.1 2.3 3 2.2 3.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Internacional de Bogota down, Independiente Medellin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,547 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Internacional de Bogota at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente Medellin away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Internacional de Bogota, 1.36 for Independiente Medellin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~IND 1–2 INT · IND 3–1 INT · INT 0–0 IND · IND 0–0 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 17 Sept

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA

LLDDDW2–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN

WLDLWL2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	15	+18	31
2	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
3	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Once Caldas	16	+2	21
9	Cucuta	15	−4	21
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	−8	14
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9