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Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC

Internacional de Bogota

2–1Full time

Fortaleza FC

Primera A · WED 21 OCT · Estadio Metropolitano de Techo

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 03:00

Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Fortaleza FC INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Internacional de Bogota win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Internacional de Bogota win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Internacional de Bogota 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–29–27
1′KICK-OFF Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC
13′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–9
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Internacional de Bogota 1–0 Fortaleza FC
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 73% now
14′F. Sanguinetti scores for Internacional de Bogota on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–9
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 74–18–7
31′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′PENALTY MISSED · 43' J. Herrera · Fortaleza FC
45′HALF-TIME Internacional de Bogota 1–0 Fortaleza FC
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Fortaleza FC
45′SECOND HALF Internacional de Bogota 1–0 Fortaleza FC
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fortaleza FC · On: F. Pulicastro · Off: I. Montano
58′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Fortaleza FC
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Internacional de Bogota · On: J. Caballero · Off: C. Dajome
66′14 shots for Fortaleza FC, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Fortaleza FC · On: J. Velasquez · Off: L. Pico
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Internacional de Bogota
70′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
70′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Internacional de Bogota
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Internacional de Bogota
71′Internacional de Bogota are down to ten from 70′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 85–13–2
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Fortaleza FC
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Internacional de Bogota · On: R. Manjarres · Off: F. Bone
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Internacional de Bogota · On: M. Angel Amaya Pena · Off: R. Julio
73′🟨 YELLOW · 70' L. Vasquez · Internacional de Bogota
74′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–69–13
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Internacional de Bogota 1–1 Fortaleza FC
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Internacional de Bogota win 87%)
75′74′: F. Pulicastro on the scoresheet for Fortaleza FC, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–70–13
77′Fortaleza FC have had 17 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 16–73–11
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Fortaleza FC · On: M. Vazquez · Off: J. Cajares
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Internacional de Bogota · On: D. Duarte · Off: F. Sanguinetti
79′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
80′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–9–1
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Fortaleza FC
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 91% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Internacional de Bogota win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 78%)
81′Internacional de Bogota ahead on 81′ through D. S. Victoria Palacios. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
82′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 92–7–0
83′Internacional de Bogota ahead on 80′ through D. S. Victoria Palacios. 2–1. 2–1 · 93–7–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Internacional de Bogota win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
86′We said Internacional de Bogota at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fortaleza FC · On: J. Garcia · Off: J. Salas
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Fortaleza FC · On: A. Larrans · Off: S. Cuero
90′2–1 at the end. Our 44% on Internacional de Bogota comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Internacional de Bogota 2–1 Fortaleza FC
FTInternacional de Bogota 2–1 Fortaleza FC · Internacional de Bogota win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Internacional de Bogota are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Internacional de Bogota 44%, draw 29%, Fortaleza FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Internacional de Bogota win44%

Draw29%

Fortaleza FC win27%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 00:15

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

RefereeCarlos Andres Marquez Ortega

Line-ups

Internacional de Bogota

3-4-3

Fortaleza FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Internacional de Bogota

Fortaleza FC

5Days since last match9

Last match: 16 Oct · Copa Colombia

Last match: 11 Oct · Copa Colombia

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Internacional de Bogota

3-4-3

1 W. Farinez

20 J. Castro

2 C. Vivas

26 A. Irazoque

25 R. Julio

8 D. S. Victoria Palacios

5 L. Vasquez

13 M. Pernia

10 F. Bone

7 F. Sanguinetti

11 C. Dajome

Coach · Ricardo Valino

Substitutes

12 · J. Carrasco

6 · M. Angel Amaya Pena

24 · R. Manjarres

14 · M. Santamaria

32 · J. Palomeque

9 · D. Duarte

23 · J. Caballero

22 · S. Girado

17 · F. Chaverra

Fortaleza FC

4-2-3-1

1 W. Barlasina

16 J. Cajares

6 Y. Diaz

5 J. Medina Obando

15 S. Cuero

14 L. Pico

28 S. Vivas

7 I. Montano

8 S. Navarro

24 J. Salas

9 J. Herrera

Coach · Diego Arias

Substitutes

22 · M. Barragan

3 · D. Ramirez

4 · E. Cabezas

10 · J. Velasquez

32 · M. Vazquez

13 · B. Mejia

25 · J. Garcia

33 · A. Larrans

19 · F. Pulicastro

Our number · internacional de bogota winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make Internacional de Bogota a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC~~1.36 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D5 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 11~~14 v 17

~~The market · Internacional de Bogota win~~40% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Internacional de Bogota win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Internacional de Bogota win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Fortaleza FC win	27%	31%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	26%	−4
Internacional de Bogota or draw	73%	69%	+4
Internacional de Bogota clean sheet	36%	–	–
Fortaleza FC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 10.4 8.6 4.8 1 11.7 13.6 6.5 2.2 2 8.5 8.6 4.4 3 3.9 3.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Internacional de Bogota down, Fortaleza FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,536 Primera A matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 339 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Internacional de Bogota at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Fortaleza FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Internacional de Bogota, 1.02 for Fortaleza FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~3 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FOR 1–1 INT · INT 0–1 FOR · FOR 1–0 INT · INT 0–2 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 5 Sept

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA

WLLDDD3–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

FORTALEZA FC

DDLDDD2–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	14	+16	28
2	Atletico Nacional	12	+14	26
3	Deportivo Cali	14	+11	26
4	Millonarios	15	+10	25
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
7	Santa Fe	13	+6	22
8	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
9	Once Caldas	14	+2	19
10	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
11	Cucuta	13	−3	18
12	Llaneros	14	−1	17
13	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
14	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
15	Junior	14	−4	12
16	Chico	13	−12	12
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10
19	Jaguares	13	−11	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	13	−10	9