Independiente Medellin v Once Caldas prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 05:01

Independiente Medellin 0–2 Once Caldas INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Independiente Medellin win~~52%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.971

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.874

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Independiente Medellin win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Independiente Medellin was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–27–21
1′KICK-OFF Independiente Medellin v Once Caldas
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Jorge Cardona · Once Caldas
24′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Andres Colorado · Once Caldas
36′Once Caldas ahead on 35′ through Jefry Zapata. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–27–56
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Independiente Medellin 0–1 Once Caldas · Jefry Zapata
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Independiente Medellin win: 52% at kick-off, 17% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Once Caldas win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Independiente Medellin win 17%)
38′We said Independiente Medellin at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–27–57
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 16–27–57
44′We said Independiente Medellin at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
45′HALF-TIME Independiente Medellin 0–1 Once Caldas
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Independiente Medellin win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Independiente Medellin · On: Keiner David Klinger Vasquez · Off: Hayen Palacios
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Independiente Medellin · On: Diego Moreno · Off: Didier Moreno
48′SECOND HALF Independiente Medellin 0–1 Once Caldas
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Luis Escorcia · Independiente Medellin
58′We said Independiente Medellin at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Juan Pablo Nieto · Once Caldas
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Independiente Medellin · On: Nivaldo Erazo · Off: John Montano
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Independiente Medellin · On: Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez · Off: Yony González
68′Michael Barrios scores for Once Caldas on 65′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
68′We said Independiente Medellin at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
68′⚽ GOAL · 65' Independiente Medellin 0–2 Once Caldas · Michael Barrios
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Independiente Medellin win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Once Caldas · On: Dayro Moreno · Off: Jefry Zapata
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Once Caldas · On: Edwin Torres · Off: Michael Barrios
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Halam Stiven Loboa Diaz · Independiente Medellin
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Keiner David Klinger Vasquez · Independiente Medellin
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Once Caldas · On: Jaime Alvarado · Off: Jader Quinones
FTFULL TIME Independiente Medellin 0–2 Once Caldas
FTIndependiente Medellin 0–2 Once Caldas · Independiente Medellin win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Independiente Medellin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Independiente Medellin 52%, draw 27%, Once Caldas 21%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Independiente Medellin v Once CaldasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Independiente Medellin win52%

Draw27%

Once Caldas win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:10

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Atanasio Girardot

RefereeSteven Camargo

Line-ups

Independiente Medellin

4-2-3-1

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Independiente Medellin

Once Caldas

3Days since last match8

Last match: 15 Oct · Copa Colombia

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Independiente Medellin	13	+4	23
10	Once Caldas	13	0	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Independiente Medellin

4-2-3-1

1 S. Ichazo

30 H. Palacios

39 L. Escorcia

5 J. Varela

18 F. Fabra

16 H. Loboa

6 D. Moreno

26 E. Mena Perea

21 A. Martegani

20 J. Montano

11 Yony Gonzalez

Coach · Luis Perea

Substitutes

25 · E. Chaux

4 · K. Mantilla

10 · D. Catano

14 · B. Perlaza

31 · D. Moreno

34 · K. Klinger

90 · E. Larrosa

32 · C. Lucumi

24 · N. Erazo

Once Caldas

4-2-3-1

99 J. Parra

22 J. D. Cuesta Santos

2 J. Cardona

30 D. Londono

33 J. Patino

5 J. Nieto

9 P. Gomez

7 M. Barrios

42 J. Quinones

23 A. Colorado

14 J. A. Zapata Ramirez

Coach · Carlos Valencia

Substitutes

12 · J. Camargo

18 · J. Riquett

16 · J. Castano

20 · A. Roa

15 · J. Alvarado

19 · T. Rojas

17 · D. Moreno

29 · E. Torres

21 · H. Guzman

Our number · independiente medellin winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 03:47 · locked at kick-off

52% The market48%

Us52%

~~Market~~48%

We make Independiente Medellin a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Independiente Medellin v Once Caldas~~1.59 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 13 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 16~~5 v 10

~~The market · Independiente Medellin win~~48% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Independiente Medellin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Independiente Medellin win	52%	48%	+4
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Once Caldas win	21%	25%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	54%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	29%	−5
Independiente Medellin or draw	79%	75%	+4
Independiente Medellin clean sheet	40%	–	–
Once Caldas clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.1 6.7 3.4 1 12.2 12.6 5.4 2 10.3 9.3 4.3 3 5.5 5.0 2.3 4 2.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Independiente Medellin down, Once Caldas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,530 Primera A matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 333 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Independiente Medellin at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Once Caldas away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Independiente Medellin, 0.91 for Once Caldas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ONC 1–1 IND · ONC 1–5 IND · IND 2–0 ONC · ONC 0–2 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 13 Sept

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN

DWLDLW2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1

ONCE CALDAS

LWLLDW1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	13	+16	27
2	Atletico Nacional	12	+14	26
3	Deportivo Cali	13	+11	25
4	Bucaramanga	12	+10	24
5	Independiente Medellin	13	+4	23
6	Santa Fe	12	+7	22
7	Millonarios	14	+7	22
8	Deportes Tolima	14	+1	20
9	Cucuta	13	−3	18
10	Once Caldas	13	0	16
11	Águilas Doradas	13	−1	16
12	Llaneros	13	−2	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
14	Alianza Valledupar	13	−12	12
15	Chico	13	−12	12
16	Junior	13	−4	11
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11
18	Jaguares	12	−8	10
19	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	−9	9