Fortaleza FC v Deportivo Cali prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fortaleza FCDrawDeportivo Cali

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Fortaleza FC 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fortaleza FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortaleza FC 37%, draw 31%, Deportivo Cali 32%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Fortaleza FC v Deportivo CaliBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Fortaleza FC win37%

Draw31%

Deportivo Cali win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio Metropolitano de Techo

RefereeJ. A. Mayorga Londono

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortaleza FC

Deportivo Cali

5Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 22 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fortaleza fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 22 Oct 03:07 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Fortaleza FC a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fortaleza FC v Deportivo Cali~~1.13 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 29~~18 v 3

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fortaleza FC win

Published at 38%, 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortaleza FC win	37%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Deportivo Cali win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Fortaleza FC or draw	68%	–	–
Fortaleza FC clean sheet	36%	–	–
Deportivo Cali clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 12.7 11.1 6.0 2.1 1 12.4 14.1 6.7 2.3 2 7.5 7.5 3.8 3 2.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortaleza FC down, Deportivo Cali across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,547 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.44 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fortaleza FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Cali away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Fortaleza FC, 1.01 for Deportivo Cali. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–1 FOR · DEP 1–1 FOR · FOR 1–0 DEP · DEP 3–2 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 11 Sept

FORTALEZA FC

DLDDDL2–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

DEPORTIVO CALI

WWWDDW1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	15	+18	31
2	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
3	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	15	−4	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9