Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo PereiraDrawJaguares

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportivo Pereira 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Pereira are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Pereira 49%, draw 28%, Jaguares 23%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Pereira v JaguaresBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Pereira win49%

Draw28%

Jaguares win23%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 5

VenueSantiago de las Atalayas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Pereira

Jaguares

10Days since last match8

Last match: 20 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 22 Oct · Primera A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo pereira winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Deportivo Pereira a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares~~1.47 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 22 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 13 v 10~~17 v 19

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Pereira win	49%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Jaguares win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Deportivo Pereira or draw	77%	–	–
Deportivo Pereira clean sheet	40%	–	–
Jaguares clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.0 7.7 4.0 1 12.5 13.1 5.7 2 9.7 9.0 4.2 3 4.8 4.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Pereira down, Jaguares across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,545 Primera A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 348 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Pereira at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Jaguares away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Deportivo Pereira, 0.93 for Jaguares. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–0 JAG · JAG 1–0 DEP · JAG 1–2 DEP · DEP 0–0 JAG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 22 Sept

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA

DLLDDW0–0 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

JAGUARES

LLLWLL1–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9