Deportivo Pereira v Chico prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 01:00

Deportivo Pereira 2–0 Chico DEPORTIVO PEREIRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Pereira win~~51%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.360

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.490

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Pereira win at 51%.
0′KICK-OFF Deportivo Pereira v Chico
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Pereira was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–28–21
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Chico
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Deportivo Pereira
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Chico
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Chico
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Deportivo Pereira win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
40′A goal for Deportivo Pereira on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 80–15–4
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Chico
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Deportivo Pereira win: 51% at kick-off, 80% now
41′We published Deportivo Pereira at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–4
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–4
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Deportivo Pereira win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Chico
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Pereira 1–0 Chico
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chico · On: S. Viveros · Off: S. Salazar
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chico · On: D. A. Ramirez Raigosa · Off: J. Pimentel
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Deportivo Pereira
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Chico · On: Y. Cabrera · Off: S. Mera
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Pereira · On: Y. Quinones · Off: A. Plata
63′We published Deportivo Pereira at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Chico · On: A. Maya · Off: E. Sarria
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Pereira · On: J. A. Bermudez Correa · Off: E. Moreno
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Pereira · On: M. Diaz · Off: F. Delgado Corrected
77′We published Deportivo Pereira at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Deportivo Pereira win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Chico
81′A red card for Chico on 80′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 93–7–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Deportivo Pereira · On: T. Bovone · Off: M. Palacios
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Chico
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Deportivo Pereira · On: F. Mosquera · Off: J. Largacha
84′We published Deportivo Pereira at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Chico
86′We published Deportivo Pereira at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Deportivo Pereira 2–0 Chico
87′86′: M. Diaz on the scoresheet for Deportivo Pereira, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Chico · On: D. Polanco · Off: C. Blanco Betancur
88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Chico
89′Chico are down to nine from 88′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 2–0. We called Deportivo Pereira at 51% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Pereira 2–0 Chico
FTDeportivo Pereira 2–0 Chico · Deportivo Pereira win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Pereira are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Pereira 51%, draw 28%, Chico 21%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Pereira v ChicoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Pereira win51%

Draw28%

Chico win21%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 22:30

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueSantiago de las Atalayas

RefereeEdwin Trujillo

Line-ups

Deportivo Pereira

4-2-3-1

Chico

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Pereira

Chico

6Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Chico	13	−12	12
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Pereira

4-2-3-1

1 Y. A. Gomez Palacio

20 J. Monroy

2 S. Urrea

15 S. Aguilar

25 F. Delgado

21 W. Pacheco

14 E. Moreno

7 A. Plata

11 J. Largacha

24 M. Palacios

18 M. Perez

Coach · Alexis Marquez

Substitutes

33 · S. Zuluaga

6 · D. Ortiz

23 · T. Bovone

5 · J. A. Bermudez Correa

13 · Y. Quinones

16 · E. A. Moreno Gomez

8 · F. Mosquera

26 · J. Montoya

29 · M. Diaz

Chico

4-4-2

1 D. Agudelo

24 C. Mosquera

5 J. Alomia

4 J. Mena

14 C. Blanco Betancur

17 E. Sarria

8 S. Salazar

6 J. Diaz

16 S. Mera

9 I. Camargo

21 J. Pimentel

Coach · Jhon Gomez

Substitutes

12 · B. Zapata

2 · D. Polanco

10 · Y. Cabrera

11 · D. A. Ramirez Raigosa

22 · A. Maya

20 · S. Viveros

Our number · deportivo pereira winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 05:21 · locked at kick-off

51% The market43%

Us51%

~~Market~~43%

We make Deportivo Pereira a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Pereira v Chico~~1.51 – 0.87

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 16 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~18 v 16

~~The market · Deportivo Pereira win~~43% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Pereira win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. The market has gone from 40% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Pereira win	51%	43%	+8
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Chico win	21%	27%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	42%	41%	+1
Both teams to score	46%	47%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	21%	+1
Deportivo Pereira or draw	79%	73%	+6
Deportivo Pereira clean sheet	42%	–	–
Chico clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 10.3 7.3 3.6 1 13.1 12.9 5.3 2 10.4 9.0 4.0 3 5.3 4.6 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Pereira down, Chico across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,536 Primera A matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 339 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Pereira at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chico away: 0.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Deportivo Pereira, 0.87 for Chico. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CHI 1–0 DEP · CHI 1–1 DEP · DEP 1–1 CHI · DEP 1–0 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 16 Sept

DEPORTIVO PEREIRA

DDLLDD2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 0–0 · 1–1

CHICO

LLWDLL1–2 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–4

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	14	+16	28
2	Atletico Nacional	12	+14	26
3	Deportivo Cali	14	+11	26
4	Millonarios	15	+10	25
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
7	Santa Fe	13	+6	22
8	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
9	Once Caldas	14	+2	19
10	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
11	Cucuta	13	−3	18
12	Llaneros	14	−1	17
13	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
14	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
15	Junior	14	−4	12
16	Chico	13	−12	12
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10
19	Jaguares	13	−11	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	13	−10	9