Deportivo Pasto v Alianza Valledupar prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 05:00

Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Alianza Valledupar DEPORTIVO PASTO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Pasto win~~50%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.936

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.022

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Pasto win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Pasto 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–28–22
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Pasto v Alianza Valledupar
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Alianza Valledupar
39′Alianza Valledupar score on 39′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–26–59
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Alianza Valledupar
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Deportivo Pasto win: 50% at kick-off, 14% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Alianza Valledupar win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Deportivo Pasto win 41%)
40′We said Deportivo Pasto at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–26–60
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Alianza Valledupar
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Alianza Valledupar
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Deportivo Pasto win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
53′We said Deportivo Pasto at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Pasto · On: P. Preciado · Off: J. Micolta Piedahita
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Pasto · On: M. Gil · Off: Y. Goez
68′We said Deportivo Pasto at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Alianza Valledupar · On: F. Pardo · Off: L. Palacios
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Alianza Valledupar · On: Y. Londono · Off: C. Vergara
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportivo Pasto · On: H. Mancilla · Off: E. C. Serje Orozco
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportivo Pasto · On: M. Pisano · Off: F. Leys
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' F. Pardo · Alianza Valledupar
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Alianza Valledupar · On: P. Franco · Off: J. Figueroa
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' J. Lasso · Alianza Valledupar
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Deportivo Pasto win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Alianza Valledupar · On: Y. Rosales · Off: I. Alba
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Alianza Valledupar · On: D. Quinones · Off: J. Munoz
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Deportivo Pasto · On: J. Quinones · Off: J. Perlaza
90′Deportivo Pasto have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–5–95
90′0–1 at the end. Our 50% on Deportivo Pasto misses, and the record keeps it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Alianza Valledupar
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Alianza Valledupar
94′Alianza Valledupar are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Pasto 0–1 Alianza Valledupar
FTDeportivo Pasto 0–1 Alianza Valledupar · Deportivo Pasto win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Pasto are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Pasto 50%, draw 28%, Alianza Valledupar 22%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Pasto v Alianza ValleduparBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Pasto win50%

Draw28%

Alianza Valledupar win22%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 02:05

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Departamental Libertad

RefereeAlvaro Jose Melendez Panneflek

Line-ups

Deportivo Pasto

4-4-2

Alianza Valledupar

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Pasto

Alianza Valledupar

16Days since last match11

Last match: 4 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera A

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Alianza Valledupar	13	−12	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	−9	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Pasto

4-4-2

12 G. Banguera

33 M. Garavito

2 F. Torijano

5 N. Gil

27 H. Goyes

23 Y. Goez

8 E. C. Serje Orozco

25 F. Leys

10 D. Chavez

18 J. Micolta Piedahita

7 J. Perlaza

Coach · Diego Merino

Substitutes

13 · L. Valverde

36 · J. Quinones

3 · J. Rios

15 · H. Mancilla

24 · K. Santacruz

32 · M. Pisano

16 · M. Gil

17 · J. Mendez

19 · P. Preciado

Alianza Valledupar

3-4-3

40 E. Beltran

3 K. Moreno

22 J. Figueroa

32 J. Viveros

23 I. Alba

7 J. Castillo

55 W. Fernandez

33 J. Lasso

88 L. Palacios

18 C. Vergara

8 J. Munoz

Coach · Flabio Torres

Substitutes

13 · A. Simancas

60 · Y. Rosales

5 · P. Franco

25 · J. E. Perez Balcazar

17 · F. Pardo

27 · Y. Londono

10 · D. Quinones

Our number · deportivo pasto winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

50% The market54%

Us50%

~~Market~~54%

We make Deportivo Pasto a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Pasto v Alianza Valledupar~~1.48 – 0.89

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 31 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 12~~20 v 15

~~The market · Deportivo Pasto win~~54% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Pasto win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Pasto win	50%	54%	−4
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Alianza Valledupar win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	42%	45%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	69%	70%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Deportivo Pasto or draw	78%	81%	−3
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet	41%	–	–
Alianza Valledupar clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.3 7.5 3.7 1 12.9 13.1 5.5 2 10.1 9.0 4.0 3 5.0 4.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Pasto down, Alianza Valledupar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,536 Primera A matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 339 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Pasto at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Alianza Valledupar away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Deportivo Pasto, 0.89 for Alianza Valledupar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALI 0–0 DEP · DEP 3–3 ALI · ALI 1–0 DEP · DEP 1–0 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 31 Aug

DEPORTIVO PASTO

LDWWLD1–2 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR

WWLWLD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	14	+16	28
2	Atletico Nacional	12	+14	26
3	Deportivo Cali	14	+11	26
4	Millonarios	15	+10	25
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
7	Santa Fe	13	+6	22
8	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
9	Once Caldas	14	+2	19
10	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
11	Cucuta	13	−3	18
12	Llaneros	14	−1	17
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
14	Junior	14	−4	12
15	Alianza Valledupar	13	−12	12
16	Chico	13	−12	12
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10
19	Jaguares	13	−11	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	−9	9