Deportivo Cali v Junior prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 05:00

Deportivo Cali 0–0 Junior DEPORTIVO CALI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Cali win~~40%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.748

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.827

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Cali win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Cali was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Cali v Junior
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Francisco Fydriszewski · Junior
31′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Junior · On: Déiber Caicedo · Off: Kevin Pérez
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Deportivo Cali win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Cali 0–0 Junior
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Cali 0–0 Junior
47′9 shots for Deportivo Cali, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 32–43–25
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Deportivo Cali win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
54′We said Deportivo Cali at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–48–23
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Cali · On: Alexis Castillo Manyoma · Off: Johan Martinez
63′We said Deportivo Cali at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
64′🟥 RED CARD · 64' Junior
65′A red card for Junior on 64′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 23–58–19
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Junior · On: Luis Muriel · Off: Cristian Barrios
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Deportivo Cali win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
71′We said Deportivo Cali at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
72′Deportivo Cali have had 12 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 19–66–15
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Deportivo Cali · On: Steven Rodríguez · Off: Nicolás Benedetti
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Junior · On: Jannenson Sarmiento · Off: Yimmi Chará
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Junior · On: Guillermo Celis · Off: Fabian Bernal
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Junior · On: Teófilo Gutiérrez · Off: Déiber Caicedo
78′We said Deportivo Cali at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Deportivo Cali win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Deportivo Cali at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
85′17 shots for Deportivo Cali, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 7–87–6
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo Cali · On: Carlos Bacca · Off: Juan Dinenno
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Mauro Silveira · Junior
90′We said Deportivo Cali at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Juan David Ríos · Junior
93′Deportivo Cali have had 20 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 2–96–2
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Cali 0–0 Junior
FTDeportivo Cali 0–0 Junior · Deportivo Cali win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Cali are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Cali 40%, draw 30%, Junior 30%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Cali v JuniorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Cali win40%

Draw30%

Junior win30%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 02:10

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio Deportivo Cali

RefereeWilmar Roldan

Line-ups

Deportivo Cali

4-2-3-1

Junior

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Cali

Junior

9Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 14 Oct · Primera A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Deportivo Cali	13	+11	25
16	Junior	13	−4	11

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Jose Mourinho admits Vinicius Junior should've joined Arsenal before Real Madrid U-turnMirror Football · 18 Oct 13:29 · Junior, Arsenal, Real Madrid

Robinho Junior makes Serie A debut at 18, following in famous father’s footstepsFootball Italia · 17 Oct 21:47 · Junior

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Cali

4-2-3-1

1 P. Gallese

27 F. Viafara

12 J. C. Caldera Alvis

4 F. Alvarez

28 E. Velasco

21 N. Benedetti

8 D. Giraldo

19 J. Martinez

10 E. Reynoso

20 E. Bello

9 J. Dinenno

Coach · Rafael Dudamel

Substitutes

38 · A. Rodriguez

26 · J. Tello

16 · K. Sandoval

13 · R. Pajaro

29 · K. Caicedo

70 · C. Bacca

23 · Titi

14 · A. Manyoma

45 · M. Botero

Junior

4-2-3-1

1 M. Silveira

34 D. Socarras

5 D. Rivera

23 P. Ortiz

26 Y. Suarez

80 F. S. Angel Bernal

14 J. Rios

77 C. Barrios

8 Y. Chara

18 K. Perez

19 F. Fydriszewski

Coach · Sebastian Viera

Substitutes

30 · J. Martinez

24 · J. Pestana

7 · H. Rivera

28 · G. Celis

20 · J. Sarmiento

38 · A. Shmalbach

29 · T. Gutierrez

25 · D. Caicedo

10 · L. Muriel

Our number · deportivo cali winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

40% The market49%

Us40%

~~Market~~49%

We make Deportivo Cali a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Cali v Junior~~1.27 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 13 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 11~~3 v 16

~~The market · Deportivo Cali win~~49% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Cali win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Cali win	40%	49%	−9
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Junior win	30%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	42%	49%	−7
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−8
Deportivo Cali or draw	70%	76%	−6
Deportivo Cali clean sheet	34%	–	–
Junior clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%

0123450 10.6 9.4 5.5 2.0 1 11.3 13.9 7.0 2.5 2 7.7 8.2 4.4 3 3.3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Cali down, Junior across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,534 Primera A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 337 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Cali at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Junior away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Deportivo Cali, 1.08 for Junior. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 01:40. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JUN 1–2 DEP · DEP 0–2 JUN · JUN 0–0 DEP · JUN 3–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 13 Sept

DEPORTIVO CALI

WWWWWD2–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0

JUNIOR

WWLLDD4–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	14	+16	28
2	Atletico Nacional	12	+14	26
3	Deportivo Cali	13	+11	25
4	Millonarios	15	+10	25
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
7	Santa Fe	12	+7	22
8	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
9	Once Caldas	14	+2	19
10	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
11	Cucuta	13	−3	18
12	Llaneros	13	−2	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
14	Alianza Valledupar	13	−12	12
15	Chico	13	−12	12
16	Junior	13	−4	11
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10
19	Jaguares	13	−11	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	−9	9