Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Pasto prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportes TolimaDrawDeportivo Pasto

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportes Tolima 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportes Tolima are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportes Tolima 57%, draw 26%, Deportivo Pasto 17%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Deportes Tolima v Deportivo PastoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Deportes Tolima win57%

Draw26%

Deportivo Pasto win17%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 01:15

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio Manuel Murillo Toro

RefereeS. Bismark

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportes Tolima

Deportivo Pasto

8Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 23 Oct · Primera A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportes tolima winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 02:40 · locked at kick-off

57% The market65%

Us57%

~~Market~~65%

We make Deportes Tolima a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportes Tolima v Deportivo Pasto~~1.59 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 15 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 9~~10 v 20

~~The market · Deportes Tolima win~~65% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportes Tolima win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Tolima win	57%	65%	−8
Draw	26%	22%	+4
Deportivo Pasto win	17%	13%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	42%	43%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−6
Deportes Tolima or draw	83%	87%	−4
Deportes Tolima clean sheet	48%	–	–
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.8%

0123450 10.6 6.6 2.7 1 14.8 12.1 4.2 2 12.2 9.0 3.3 3 6.5 4.8 4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Tolima down, Deportivo Pasto across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,547 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Tolima at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Pasto away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Deportes Tolima, 0.74 for Deportivo Pasto. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~Deportivo Pasto 0–2 Deportes Tolima · Deportes Tolima 1–0 Deportivo Pasto · Deportivo Pasto 1–0 Deportes Tolima · Deportivo Pasto 3–2 Deportes Tolima

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 15 Sept

DEPORTES TOLIMA

DDDDLL1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 2–3 · 1–2

DEPORTIVO PASTO

WWLDLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	15	+18	31
2	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
3	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Once Caldas	16	+2	21
9	Cucuta	15	−4	21
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	−8	14
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9