Cucuta v Atletico Nacional prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 03:00

Cucuta 1–0 Atletico Nacional ATLETICO NACIONAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Nacional win~~52%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.924

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.968

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Nacional win at 52%.
1′KICK-OFF Cucuta v Atletico Nacional
2′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Nacional 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 23–25–52
18′A goal for Cucuta on 18′. 0–0 · 23–28–49
20′We said Atletico Nacional at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 52–25–23
20′⚽ GOAL · 18' Cucuta 1–0 Atletico Nacional · D. Perez
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Atletico Nacional win: 52% at kick-off, 23% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Cucuta win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Atletico Nacional win 48%)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Atletico Nacional win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' M. Uribe · Atletico Nacional
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 54–26–20
32′We said Atletico Nacional at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–26–19
45′HALF-TIME Cucuta 1–0 Atletico Nacional
45′SECOND HALF Cucuta 1–0 Atletico Nacional
46′We said Atletico Nacional at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
46′8 shots for Atletico Nacional, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 60–26–14
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cucuta · On: Y. Abonia · Off: M. B. Carabali Lopez
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Atletico Nacional win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Cucuta
59′We said Atletico Nacional at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
62′Atletico Nacional have had 13 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 68–24–8
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atletico Nacional · On: R. Escorcia · Off: N. Rodriguez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atletico Nacional · On: J. Rengifo · Off: K. Parra Atehortua
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cucuta · On: K. Londono · Off: D. Calcaterra
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Cucuta · On: E. M. Duarte Barajas · Off: D. Perez
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Atletico Nacional · On: E. Echeverria · Off: M. Uribe
71′We said Atletico Nacional at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cucuta · On: J. Ceballos · Off: S. Tamara
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cucuta · On: L. Rios · Off: L. Berdugo
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Atletico Nacional win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Nacional · On: X. Rios · Off: A. Roman
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atletico Nacional · On: M. Lozano · Off: J. Campuzano
87′16 shots for Atletico Nacional, 6 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 92–8–0
90′1–0 at the end. Our 52% on Atletico Nacional misses, and the record keeps it. 1–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Cucuta 1–0 Atletico Nacional
FTCucuta 1–0 Atletico Nacional · Atletico Nacional win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Nacional are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cucuta 23%, draw 25%, Atletico Nacional 52%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Cucuta v Atletico NacionalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Cucuta win23%

Draw25%

Atletico Nacional win52%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 00:30

RoundClausura · matchday 15

VenueEstadio General Santander

RefereeAndres Rojas

Line-ups

Cucuta

4-1-4-1

Atletico Nacional

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cucuta

Atletico Nacional

9Days since last match3

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera A

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Atletico Nacional	12	+14	26
11	Cucuta	13	−3	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cucuta

4-1-4-1

12 F. Abadia

33 S. Tamara

2 H. Lopes

4 J. Quinones

30 B. Montano

3 D. Calcaterra

21 M. B. Carabali Lopez

10 L. Berdugo

77 Neneco

20 D. Perez

11 G. Torres

Coach · Nicolas Chiesa

Substitutes

1 · J. Ramirez

26 · Y. Abonia

27 · E. M. Duarte Barajas

16 · K. Londono

29 · L. Rios

8 · J. Ceballos

7 · J. E. Manyoma Cordoba

32 · J. Agudelo

18 · C. Cordoba

Atletico Nacional

4-4-2

25 L. Marquinez

6 A. Roman

3 N. Parra

4 C. Haydar

33 S. Velasquez

13 N. Rodriguez

26 F. Marin

21 J. Campuzano

30 K. Parra Atehortua

23 J. Rodriguez

8 M. Uribe

Coach · Lucas Gonzalez

Substitutes

44 · E. Zea

20 · M. Casco

31 · X. Rios

38 · J. Moreno

14 · E. Rivero

19 · J. Rengifo

35 · M. Lozano

36 · R. Escorcia

39 · E. Echeverria

Our number · atletico nacional winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 18 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

52% The market54%

Us52%

~~Market~~54%

We make Atletico Nacional a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cucuta v Atletico Nacional~~1.08 – 1.74

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 26~~11 v 2

~~The market · Atletico Nacional win~~54% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Nacional win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. The market has gone from 58% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cucuta win	23%	21%	+2
Draw	25%	25%	0
Atletico Nacional win	52%	54%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	34%	−3
Cucuta or draw	48%	46%	+2
Cucuta clean sheet	18%	–	–
Atletico Nacional clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.8 9.6 9.0 5.2 2.3 1 5.8 11.9 9.6 5.5 2.4 2 3.5 6.0 5.2 3.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cucuta down, Atletico Nacional across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,537 Primera A matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 340 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 1.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cucuta at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Nacional away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Cucuta, 1.74 for Atletico Nacional. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ATL 0–0 CUC · CUC 0–3 ATL · ATL 1–0 CUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 5 Sept

CUCUTA

DLLWWW2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–0

ATLETICO NACIONAL

WLDWDW3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	14	+16	28
2	Atletico Nacional	12	+14	26
3	Deportivo Cali	14	+11	26
4	Millonarios	15	+10	25
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
7	Santa Fe	13	+6	22
8	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
9	Once Caldas	14	+2	19
10	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
11	Cucuta	13	−3	18
12	Llaneros	14	−1	17
13	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
14	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
15	Junior	14	−4	12
16	Chico	13	−12	12
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11
18	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10
19	Jaguares	13	−11	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	13	−10	9