Cucuta v Águilas Doradas prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CucutaDrawÁguilas Doradas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Cucuta 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cucuta are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cucuta 39%, draw 28%, Águilas Doradas 33%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Cucuta v Águilas DoradasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Cucuta win39%

Draw28%

Águilas Doradas win33%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 23:00

RoundClausura · matchday 5

VenueEstadio General Santander

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cucuta

Águilas Doradas

3Days since last match3

Last match: 25 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Cucuta	15	−4	21
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cucuta winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 03:06 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Cucuta a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cucuta v Águilas Doradas~~1.33 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 19 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 21 v 19~~9 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cucuta win

Published at 38%, 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cucuta win	39%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Águilas Doradas win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Cucuta or draw	67%	–	–
Cucuta clean sheet	30%	–	–
Águilas Doradas clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 8.7 8.8 5.8 2.4 1 9.7 13.3 7.6 3.1 2 7.0 8.3 5.0 2.0 3 3.1 3.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cucuta down, Águilas Doradas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,547 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cucuta at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Águilas Doradas away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Cucuta, 1.21 for Águilas Doradas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~AGU 3–2 CUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 19 Sept

CUCUTA

LWWWWL0–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–3

ÁGUILAS DORADAS

LWDDWL0–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	15	+18	31
2	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
3	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Once Caldas	16	+2	21
9	Cucuta	15	−4	21
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	−8	14
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9