Chico v Junior prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChicoDrawJunior

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Junior 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Junior are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chico 26%, draw 28%, Junior 46%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Chico v JuniorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Chico win26%

Draw28%

Junior win46%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 01:05

RoundClausura · matchday 5

VenueEstadio La Independencia

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chico

Junior

5Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Junior	15	−3	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · junior winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Junior a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chico v Junior~~1.02 – 1.43

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 25 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~16 v 14

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chico win	26%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Junior win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Chico or draw	54%	–	–
Chico clean sheet	24%	–	–
Junior clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.6 11.6 8.8 4.2 1 8.1 13.3 8.9 4.3 2 4.5 6.3 4.5 2.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chico down, Junior across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,545 Primera A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 348 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chico at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Junior away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Chico, 1.43 for Junior. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~JUN 3–0 CHI · JUN 2–0 CHI · CHI 0–2 JUN · JUN 2–1 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 25 Sept

CHICO

WDLLLW3–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–2 · 1–0

JUNIOR

LLDDDW1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9