Chico v Cucuta prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 03:00

Chico 0–1 Cucuta CHICO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chico win~~41%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.734

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.868

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chico win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chico was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
1′KICK-OFF Chico v Cucuta
2′Much as we predicted: Chico was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–27–31
8′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Chico
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Jhonier Alomia · Chico
42′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jefferson Mena · Chico
45′SECOND HALF Chico 0–0 Cucuta
61′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Cristián Mosquera · Chico
61′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Jhonier Alomia · Chico
61′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Jefferson Mena · Chico
70′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Jaime Peralta · Cucuta
73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Chico · On: Yesus Cabrera · Off: Jacobo Pimentel Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Victor Mejia · Cucuta
73′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Chico · On: Delio Ramírez · Off: Alejandro Maya Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Cucuta · On: Yair Abonia · Off: Sebastián Tamara Corrected
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Chico 0–1 Cucuta
80′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chico 0–1 Cucuta · Dayan Pérez
82′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cucuta · On: Marlon Carabalí · Off: Dayan Pérez Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cucuta · On: Diego Calcaterra · Off: Gustavo Torres Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Chico · On: Felipe Cifuentes · Off: Sebastian Salazar Corrected
93′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cucuta · On: Juan Ceballos · Off: Leider Berdugo Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Cucuta · On: Santiago Vásquez · Off: Victor Mejia Corrected
96′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Chico · On: Daniel Polanco · Off: S. Mera Corrected
FTFULL TIME Chico 0–1 Cucuta
FTChico 0–1 Cucuta · Chico win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Chico win41%

Draw28%

Cucuta win30%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:10

VenueEstadio La Independencia

Line-ups

Chico

4-4-2

Cucuta

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chico

Cucuta

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Cucuta	31	−17	31
17	Chico	30	−25	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Chico

4-4-2

1 D. Agudelo

24 C. Mosquera

5 J. Alomia

4 J. Mena

14 C. Blanco Betancur

17 E. Sarria

8 S. Salazar

6 J. Diaz

16 S. Mera

22 A. Maya

21 J. Pimentel

Coach · Jhon Gomez

Substitutes

12 · B. Zapata

2 · D. Polanco

15 · S. Navarro

10 · Y. Cabrera

11 · D. A. Ramirez Raigosa

20 · S. Viveros

7 · F. Cifuentes

29 · L. Carabali

19 · J. Pimentel Betancourt

Cucuta

4-1-4-1

12 F. Abadia

33 S. Tamara

2 H. Lopes

4 J. Quinones

30 B. Montano

5 V. Mejia

20 D. Perez

10 L. Berdugo

77 Neneco

11 G. Torres

9 J. Peralta

Coach · Nicolas Chiesa

Substitutes

1 · J. Ramirez

3 · D. Calcaterra

26 · Y. Abonia

27 · E. M. Duarte Barajas

29 · L. Rios

8 · J. Ceballos

15 · S. Vasquez

21 · M. B. Carabali Lopez

32 · J. Agudelo

Our number · chico winPublished 12 Oct 00:00

41% The market46%

Us41%

~~Market~~46%

We make Chico a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chico win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chico win	41%	46%	−5
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Cucuta win	30%	24%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	46%	44%	+2
Both teams to score	51%	49%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	69%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	24%	0
Chico or draw	70%	76%	−6
Chico clean sheet	32%	–	–
Cucuta clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.1 8.4 5.3 2.0 1 10.3 13.4 7.2 2.7 2 7.6 8.6 4.9 3 3.5 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chico down, Cucuta across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,524 Primera A matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 327 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chico at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cucuta away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Chico, 1.14 for Cucuta. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CUC 1–0 CHI

Form · last six in Primera A

CHICO

WWLLWD2–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–0

CUCUTA

LDLLWW1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	36	+39	78
2	America de Cali	33	+23	61
3	Santa Fe	35	+18	57
4	Deportes Tolima	36	+12	57
5	Junior	37	+6	54
6	Deportivo Cali	32	+15	52
7	Once Caldas	34	+8	50
8	Millonarios	33	+15	48
9	Bucaramanga	30	+16	46
10	Independiente Medellin	31	+5	46
11	Deportivo Pasto	33	−8	43
12	Internacional de Bogota	35	−11	42
13	Águilas Doradas	31	−6	41
14	Llaneros	32	−5	36
15	Fortaleza FC	32	−10	33
16	Cucuta	31	−17	31
17	Chico	30	−25	29
18	Alianza Valledupar	32	−26	29
19	Jaguares	30	−22	25
20	Deportivo Pereira	31	−27	19