Chico v Bucaramanga prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 02:30

Chico 1–0 Bucaramanga BUCARAMANGA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bucaramanga win~~46%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.788

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bucaramanga win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bucaramanga was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 24–30–46
1′KICK-OFF Chico v Bucaramanga
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Bucaramanga
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Bucaramanga win 39%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Bucaramanga win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME Chico 0–0 Bucaramanga
45′SECOND HALF Chico 0–0 Bucaramanga
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Bucaramanga · On: J. Salazar · Off: A. Gutierrez
48′We said Bucaramanga at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 20–45–34
48′Chico have had 10 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 20–45–34
58′We said Bucaramanga at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 18–52–29
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bucaramanga · On: O. Albornoz · Off: F. Hinestroza
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bucaramanga · On: L. Flores · Off: Fabry
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Bucaramanga · On: L. Matheus · Off: D. Novoa
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Chico
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Bucaramanga win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
65′We said Bucaramanga at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Chico 1–0 Bucaramanga
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Bucaramanga win: 46% at kick-off, 4% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Chico win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 59%)
66′64′: A. Maya on the scoresheet for Chico, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–4
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Chico · On: I. Camargo · Off: A. Maya
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Chico · On: D. A. Ramirez Raigosa · Off: E. Sarria
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Chico · On: S. Viveros · Off: J. Pimentel
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Chico
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Chico · On: S. Salazar · Off: Cardenas
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Bucaramanga at 46% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–0 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Bucaramanga · On: B. Caicedo · Off: N. Castrillon
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Chico
FTFULL TIME Chico 1–0 Bucaramanga
FTChico 1–0 Bucaramanga · Bucaramanga win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bucaramanga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chico 24%, draw 29%, Bucaramanga 46%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Chico v BucaramangaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Chico win24%

Draw29%

Bucaramanga win46%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 00:00

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio La Independencia

Line-ups

Chico

4-4-2

Bucaramanga

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chico

Bucaramanga

3Days since last match5

Last match: 20 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
17	Chico	14	−14	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chico

4-4-2

1 David Agudelo

15 Sander Navarro

2 Daniel Polanco

4 Jefferson Mena

14 Cristian Blanco

17 Estiven Sarria

6 Juan Diaz

28 Jesús Cárdenas

16 Santiago Mera

21 Jacobo Pimentel

22 Alejandro Maya

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Branndon Zapata

18 · Junior Palacios

19 · Jeronimo Pimentel

20 · Sebastián Viveros

11 · Delio Ramírez

24 · Cristián Mosquera

8 · Sebastian Salazar

29 · Luis Carabalí Carrera

9 · Isaac Camargo

Bucaramanga

3-4-3

12 Diego Novoa

6 Nilson Castrillón

24 José Ortiz

4 José García

19 Aldair Gutiérrez

21 Felix Charrupí

22 Fabry Castro

8 Freddy Hinestroza

17 Emerson Batalla

27 Luciano Pons

10 Fabián Sambueza

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · Luis Matheus

3 · Martín Rea

80 · Omar Albornoz

7 · Kevin Londoño

11 · Fredy Salazar

20 · Aldair Zárate

28 · Leonardo Flores

9 · Brandon Caicedo

5 · Adrián Murillo

Our number · bucaramanga winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market42%

Us46%

~~Market~~42%

We make Bucaramanga a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chico v Bucaramanga~~0.90 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 25~~17 v 5

~~The market · Bucaramanga win~~42% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bucaramanga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chico win	24%	28%	−4
Draw	29%	30%	−1
Bucaramanga win	46%	42%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	39%	40%	−1
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Over 3.5 goals	19%	21%	−2
Chico or draw	54%	58%	−4
Chico clean sheet	26%	–	–
Bucaramanga clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.5 13.4 9.5 4.3 1 8.7 13.5 8.5 3.8 2 4.3 5.7 3.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chico down, Bucaramanga across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,543 Primera A matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 346 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chico at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bucaramanga away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for Chico, 1.35 for Bucaramanga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BUC 5–0 CHI · BUC 1–1 CHI · BUC 3–2 CHI · CHI 1–0 BUC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 18 Sept

CHICO

LWDLLL0–3 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–2

BUCARAMANGA

DWWWDD2–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
15	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
16	Junior	14	−4	12
17	Chico	14	−14	12
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9