Chico v Atletico Nacional prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Chico 1–4 Atletico Nacional ATLETICO NACIONAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Nacional win~~56%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Nacional win at 56%.
0′KICK-OFF Chico v Atletico Nacional
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Nacional 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 19–25–56
44′Emmanuel Benítez scores for Atletico Nacional on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–14–82
44′⚽ GOAL · 16' Chico 0–1 Atletico Nacional · Emmanuel Benítez (assist Edwin Cardona)
44′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Juan Diaz · Chico
44′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Juan Rengifo · Atletico Nacional
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
45′HALF-TIME Chico 0–1 Atletico Nacional
46′We said Atletico Nacional at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 3–14–82
46′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 3–14–82
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Xavi Rios · Atletico Nacional
46′SECOND HALF Chico 0–1 Atletico Nacional
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Nacional · On: Felipe Marín · Off: Elkin Rivero
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chico · On: Yesus Cabrera · Off: Jacobo Pimentel
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Atletico Nacional · On: Nicolás Rodríguez · Off: Emmanuel Benítez
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chico · On: I. Camargo · Off: Alejandro Maya
50′We said Atletico Nacional at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Chico 0–2 Atletico Nacional
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Atletico Nacional win: 56% at kick-off, 97% now
51′50′: Edwin Cardona on the scoresheet for Atletico Nacional, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–97
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Edwin Cardona · Atletico Nacional
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' I. Camargo · Chico
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Chico · On: sebastian viveros · Off: Sebastian Salazar
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico Nacional · On: Andrés Sarmiento · Off: Elías Lautaro Cabrera
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Atletico Nacional · On: Kevin Parra · Off: Edwin Cardona
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Chico · On: Sander Navarro · Off: Estiven Sarria
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Chico · On: Delio Ramírez · Off: S. Mera
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Atletico Nacional · On: Jose Escorcia · Off: Juan Rengifo
79′We said Atletico Nacional at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′We said Atletico Nacional at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–2 · 0–6–93
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Chico 1–2 Atletico Nacional
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–94
84′Chico pull one back on 83′ through Juan Diaz. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Chico 1–3 Atletico Nacional
88′Andrés Sarmiento scores for Atletico Nacional on 85′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′1–4 at the end. Our 56% on Atletico Nacional comes in. 1–4 · 0–0–100
91′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Chico 1–4 Atletico Nacional
92′90′: Andrés Sarmiento on the scoresheet for Atletico Nacional, making it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Chico 1–4 Atletico Nacional
FTChico 1–4 Atletico Nacional · Atletico Nacional win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Nacional are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chico 19%, draw 25%, Atletico Nacional 56%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Chico v Atletico NacionalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chico win19%

Draw25%

Atletico Nacional win56%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

RoundClausura · matchday 1

VenueEstadio La Independencia

RefereeCarlos Ortega

Line-ups

Chico

4-1-4-1

Atletico Nacional

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chico

Atletico Nacional

6Days since last match2

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 15 Oct · Copa Colombia

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Atletico Nacional	11	+11	23
14	Chico	12	−9	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chico

4-1-4-1

1 D. Agudelo

24 C. Mosquera

5 J. Alomia

4 J. Mena

14 C. Blanco Betancur

6 J. Diaz

17 E. Sarria

8 S. Salazar

21 J. Pimentel

16 S. Mera

22 A. Maya

Coach · Jhon Gomez

Substitutes

12 · B. Zapata

2 · D. Polanco

15 · S. Navarro

10 · Y. Cabrera

11 · D. A. Ramirez Raigosa

20 · S. Viveros

9 · I. Camargo

29 · L. Carabali

19 · J. Pimentel Betancourt

Atletico Nacional

4-3-3

34 F. Armani

31 X. Rios

3 N. Parra

4 C. Haydar

20 M. Casco

22 E. Cabrera

14 E. Rivero

80 J. Zapata

19 J. Rengifo

32 E. Benitez

10 E. Cardona

Coach · Lucas Gonzalez

Substitutes

25 · L. Marquinez

33 · S. Velasquez

38 · J. Moreno

36 · R. Escorcia

26 · F. Marin

29 · A. Sarmiento

13 · N. Rodriguez

30 · K. Parra Atehortua

39 · E. Echeverria

Our number · atletico nacional winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market65%

Us56%

~~Market~~65%

We make Atletico Nacional a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chico v Atletico Nacional~~0.89 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 23~~14 v 4

~~The market · Atletico Nacional win~~65% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Nacional win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chico win	19%	13%	+6
Draw	25%	22%	+3
Atletico Nacional win	56%	65%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	32%	−5
Chico or draw	44%	35%	+9
Chico clean sheet	18%	–	–
Atletico Nacional clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.3 11.9 10.8 6.2 2.7 1 5.9 12.0 9.5 5.4 2.4 2 3.0 5.0 4.2 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chico down, Atletico Nacional across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,529 Primera A matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.2% of games this season, across 332 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chico at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atletico Nacional away: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Chico, 1.72 for Atletico Nacional. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ATL 4–0 CHI · CHI 1–1 ATL · ATL 4–1 CHI · ATL 6–2 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 12 Sept

CHICO

WLLWDL2–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

ATLETICO NACIONAL

WWLDWD2–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	13	+16	27
2	Deportivo Cali	13	+11	25
3	Bucaramanga	12	+10	24
4	Atletico Nacional	11	+11	23
5	Independiente Medellin	13	+4	23
6	Santa Fe	12	+7	22
7	Millonarios	14	+7	22
8	Deportes Tolima	14	+1	20
9	Cucuta	13	−3	18
10	Once Caldas	13	0	16
11	Águilas Doradas	13	−1	16
12	Llaneros	13	−2	14
13	Internacional de Bogota	14	−4	14
14	Chico	12	−9	12
15	Alianza Valledupar	13	−12	12
16	Junior	13	−4	11
17	Fortaleza FC	13	−5	11
18	Jaguares	12	−8	10
19	Deportivo Pereira	13	−10	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	12	−9	9