Bucaramanga v Deportivo Pasto prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BucaramangaDrawDeportivo Pasto

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Bucaramanga 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bucaramanga are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bucaramanga 55%, draw 27%, Deportivo Pasto 18%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Bucaramanga v Deportivo PastoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Bucaramanga win55%

Draw27%

Deportivo Pasto win18%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 01:05

RoundClausura · matchday 5

VenueEstadio Américo Montanini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bucaramanga

Deportivo Pasto

8Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 23 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bucaramanga winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Bucaramanga a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bucaramanga v Deportivo Pasto~~1.53 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 15 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 25 v 9~~5 v 20

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bucaramanga win	55%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Deportivo Pasto win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Bucaramanga or draw	82%	–	–
Bucaramanga clean sheet	47%	–	–
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.9%

0123450 11.1 7.0 2.9 1 14.9 12.4 4.4 2 11.8 8.9 3.4 3 6.0 4.5 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bucaramanga down, Deportivo Pasto across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,547 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bucaramanga at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Pasto away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Bucaramanga, 0.76 for Deportivo Pasto. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 0–0 BUC · DEP 3–0 BUC · BUC 2–1 DEP · BUC 0–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 15 Sept

BUCARAMANGA

WWWDDL2–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

DEPORTIVO PASTO

WWLDLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	15	+18	31
2	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
3	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	15	−4	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9