Bucaramanga v Águilas Doradas prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 03:00

Bucaramanga 1–1 Águilas Doradas BUCARAMANGA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bucaramanga win~~54%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.866

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.813

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bucaramanga win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bucaramanga 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
1′KICK-OFF Bucaramanga v Águilas Doradas
33′Bucaramanga have had 7.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 46–35–19
35′A goal for Bucaramanga on 35′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 45–36–19
36′We said Bucaramanga at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Bucaramanga 1–0 Águilas Doradas · Edwin Castro
36′GOAL DISALLOWED · 36' Bucaramanga
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Bucaramanga 1–0 Águilas Doradas · Edwin Castro
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Bucaramanga win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Bucaramanga 1–0 Águilas Doradas · Edwin Castro
45′SECOND HALF Bucaramanga 1–0 Águilas Doradas
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Aldair Gutiérrez · Bucaramanga
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Bucaramanga win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Águilas Doradas · On: Junior Noguera · Off: Matías Ramírez Corrected
60′We said Bucaramanga at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
63′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Fabián Sambueza · Bucaramanga
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Bucaramanga · On: Fredy Salazar · Off: Fabián Sambueza Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Iván Rojas · Águilas Doradas
73′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Andres Mosquera · Águilas Doradas
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Águilas Doradas · On: Ricardo Marquez · Off: Juan Esteban·Avalo Trejos Corrected
75′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Matías Ramírez · Águilas Doradas
76′We said Bucaramanga at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Bucaramanga win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We said Bucaramanga at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Águilas Doradas · On: Tomás Blandón · Off: Frank Lozano Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Águilas Doradas · On: Eduar Arízalas · Off: Andres Ricaurte Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Bucaramanga · On: Leonardo Flores · Off: Emerson Batalla Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Bucaramanga · On: Brandon·Caicedo · Off: Luciano Pons Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Bucaramanga · On: Martín Rea · Off: Aldair Gutiérrez Corrected
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Edwin Castro · Bucaramanga
97′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Jorge Soto · Águilas Doradas
97′🟨 YELLOW · 98' Cristopher Fiermarin · Bucaramanga
97′PENALTY · 98' Águilas Doradas
99′We said Bucaramanga at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
99′⚽ GOAL · 99' Bucaramanga 1–1 Águilas Doradas
99′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 99' Bucaramanga win: 54% at kick-off, 2% now
99′THE CALL SWINGS · 99' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Bucaramanga win 2%)
FTFULL TIME Bucaramanga 1–1 Águilas Doradas
FTBucaramanga 1–1 Águilas Doradas · Bucaramanga win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Bucaramanga v Águilas DoradasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 00:05 · locked at kick-off

Bucaramanga win54%

Draw27%

Águilas Doradas win19%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 00:30

VenueEstadio Américo Montanini

RefereeJonnathan Ortiz

Line-ups

Bucaramanga

5-4-1

Águilas Doradas

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bucaramanga

Águilas Doradas

9Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Águilas Doradas	19	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	6	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bucaramanga

5-4-1

25 C. Fiermarin

19 A. Gutierrez

6 N. Castrillon

23 C. Romana

24 J. Ortiz

80 O. Albornoz

10 F. Sambueza

21 F. Charrupi

22 Fabry

17 E. Batalla

27 L. Pons

Coach · Leonel Alvarez

Substitutes

12 · D. Novoa

3 · M. Rea

30 · V. Cantillo

28 · L. Flores

7 · K. Londono

29 · S. Velasquez

9 · B. Caicedo

11 · J. Salazar

5 · A. Murrilo

Águilas Doradas

4-2-3-1

1 J. Soto

26 D. Lozano

4 A. Mosquera

3 J. Ontaneda

32 J. Mena

19 F. Lozano

6 I. Rojas

24 J. E. Avalo Trejos

8 A. Ricaurte

16 M. Ramirez

9 A. Vasquez

Coach · David Nino Casteblanco Juan

Substitutes

12 · J. Hurtado

2 · J. Garcia

28 · S. Rodriguez

30 · N. Lara Vasquez

25 · J. Roa

10 · J. Noguera

7 · E. Arizalas

21 · R. Marquez

29 · T. Blandon

Our number · bucaramanga winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 00:05 · locked at kick-off

54% The market47%

Us54%

~~Market~~47%

We make Bucaramanga a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bucaramanga v Águilas Doradas~~1.58 – 0.84

~~Last six in Primera A~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 26~~13 v 12

~~The market · Bucaramanga win~~47% · ours 54%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bucaramanga win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bucaramanga win	54%	47%	+7
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Águilas Doradas win	19%	25%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Both teams to score	45%	56%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	70%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	31%	−9
Bucaramanga or draw	81%	75%	+6
Bucaramanga clean sheet	44%	–	–
Águilas Doradas clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 9.8 6.7 3.1 1 13.4 12.5 4.9 2 11.1 9.2 3.8 3 5.9 4.9 2.0 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bucaramanga down, Águilas Doradas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,527 Primera A matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.5% of games this season, across 330 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.45 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bucaramanga at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Águilas Doradas away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Bucaramanga, 0.84 for Águilas Doradas. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 14 Oct 00:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.45

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~AGU 2–1 BUC · BUC 4–0 AGU · AGU 0–1 BUC · AGU 1–3 BUC

Form · last six in Primera A

BUCARAMANGA

DWDWWW1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–1

ÁGUILAS DORADAS

LDLLWD0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	19	20	40
2	Junior	19	7	35
3	Deportivo Pasto	19	4	34
4	America de Cali	19	10	33
5	Once Caldas	19	9	33
6	Deportes Tolima	19	10	31
7	Santa Fe	19	7	29
8	Internacional de Bogota	19	0	28
9	Deportivo Cali	19	4	27
10	Millonarios	19	8	26
11	Independiente Medellin	19	2	26
12	Águilas Doradas	19	-5	26
13	Bucaramanga	19	6	23
14	Llaneros	19	-3	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	-5	22
16	Jaguares	19	-13	18
17	Alianza Valledupar	19	-14	17
18	Chico	19	-17	17
19	Cucuta	19	-13	16
20	Deportivo Pereira	19	-17	10