Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atletico NacionalDrawSanta Fe

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico Nacional 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Nacional are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Nacional 56%, draw 25%, Santa Fe 19%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Nacional v Santa FeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Nacional win56%

Draw25%

Santa Fe win19%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 01:30

RoundClausura · matchday 5

VenueEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Nacional

Santa Fe

7Days since last match8

Last match: 23 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 22 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico nacional winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Atletico Nacional a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe~~1.72 – 0.90

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 29 v 25~~1 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Nacional win	56%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Santa Fe win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Atletico Nacional or draw	81%	–	–
Atletico Nacional clean sheet	41%	–	–
Santa Fe clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 8.1 5.9 3.0 1 11.9 11.9 5.0 2 10.7 9.6 4.3 3 6.2 5.5 2.5 4 2.7 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Nacional down, Santa Fe across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,546 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Nacional at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Santa Fe away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Atletico Nacional, 0.90 for Santa Fe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–2 ATL · ATL 1–1 SAN · SAN 1–2 ATL · ATL 1–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 19 Sept

ATLETICO NACIONAL

DWDWLW1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

SANTA FE

WLWWLW4–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9