Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Atletico NacionalDrawIndependiente Medellin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:10

Before kick-off · Match result · Atletico Nacional 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Nacional are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Nacional 58%, draw 24%, Independiente Medellin 19%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Nacional v Independiente MedellinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Nacional win58%

Draw24%

Independiente Medellin win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:10

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Nacional

Independiente Medellin

2Days since last match7

Last match: 23 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera A

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico nacional winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market52%

Us58%

~~Market~~52%

We make Atletico Nacional a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Nacional v Independiente Medellin~~1.86 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 22 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 29 v 23~~1 v 7

~~The market · Atletico Nacional win~~52% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Nacional win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Nacional win	58%	52%	+6
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Independiente Medellin win	19%	22%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Atletico Nacional or draw	81%	78%	+3
Atletico Nacional clean sheet	38%	–	–
Independiente Medellin clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.7 5.1 2.8 1 10.4 11.2 5.1 2 10.2 9.8 4.7 3 6.3 6.1 2.9 4 3.0 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Nacional down, Independiente Medellin across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,546 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 349 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Nacional at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente Medellin away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Atletico Nacional, 0.97 for Independiente Medellin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 3–2 IND · IND 2–3 ATL · IND 0–1 ATL · ATL 0–0 IND

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 22 Sept

ATLETICO NACIONAL

DWDWLW1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN

WLDLWL2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9