Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto prediction · Primera A

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 04:35

Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo Pasto ATLETICO NACIONAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Nacional win~~66%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.179

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.096

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Nacional win at 66%.
0′KICK-OFF Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto
1′Little has changed for our model: Atletico Nacional 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–22–13
14′E. Cardona scores for Atletico Nacional on 13′. 0–0 · 62–24–13
14′We said Atletico Nacional at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportivo Pasto · E. Cardona
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Atletico Nacional win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Atletico Nacional
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportivo Pasto
45′SECOND HALF Atletico Nacional 1–0 Deportivo Pasto
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Deportivo Pasto
53′53′: C. Haydar on the scoresheet for Atletico Nacional. 1–0 · 87–11–2
54′We said Atletico Nacional at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Atletico Nacional 2–0 Deportivo Pasto · C. Haydar
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Atletico Nacional win: 66% at kick-off, 98% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Atletico Nacional
60′Atletico Nacional ahead on 52′ through R. Escorcia. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Pasto · On: J. Micolta Piedahita · Off: D. Chavez
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Deportivo Pasto · On: P. Preciado · Off: M. Gil
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico Nacional · On: E. Benitez · Off: R. Escorcia
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico Nacional · On: K. Parra Atehortua · Off: E. Cabrera
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atletico Nacional · On: N. Rodriguez · Off: E. Cardona
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportivo Pasto · On: J. Mendez · Off: J. Perlaza
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportivo Pasto · On: J. Rios · Off: N. Gil
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Atletico Nacional
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Atletico Nacional · On: W. Tesillo · Off: C. Haydar
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Atletico Nacional · On: M. Uribe · Off: S. Rojas
76′We said Atletico Nacional at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportivo Pasto · On: S. Cordoba · Off: H. Mancilla
90′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo Pasto
91′J. Rengifo scores for Atletico Nacional on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Atletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo Pasto
FTAtletico Nacional 3–0 Deportivo Pasto · Atletico Nacional win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atletico Nacional are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atletico Nacional 66%, draw 22%, Deportivo Pasto 13%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Atletico Nacional v Deportivo PastoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Nacional win66%

Draw22%

Deportivo Pasto win13%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 02:00

RoundClausura · matchday 14

VenueEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional

4-3-3

Deportivo Pasto

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atletico Nacional

Deportivo Pasto

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 20 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Atletico Nacional	13	+13	26
20	Deportivo Pasto	13	−10	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional

4-3-3

34 Franco Armani

31 Xavi Rios

15 Andres Reyes

4 César Haydar

20 Milton Casco

28 Simon Rojas

80 Juan Zapata

36 Jose Rafael Escorcia

22 Elías Cabrera

10 Edwin Cardona

19 Juan Manuel Rengifo

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · Nicolás Rodríguez

30 · Kevin Parra

32 · Emanuel Benitez

16 · William Tesillo

8 · Matheus Uribe

25 · Luis Marquinez

27 · Yeicar Perlaza

14 · Elkin Rivero

40 · Jhoan Quesada

Deportivo Pasto

4-4-2

12 Geovanni Banguera

33 Mateo Garavito

2 Fainer Torijano

5 Nicolas Gil Uribe

27 Hervin Goyes

10 Diego Chávez

8 Enrique Serje

15 Harrinson Mancilla

25 Franco Leys

16 Mayer Gil

7 Jonathan Perlaza

Coach · –

Substitutes

18 · Joider Micolta

19 · Patrick Preciado

17 · John Méndez

3 · Joyce Ossa

29 · Santiago Córdoba

36 · Julián Quiñones

32 · Matías Pisano

23 · Yeiler Góez

13 · Luis Marquínez

Our number · atletico nacional winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

66% The market75%

Us66%

~~Market~~75%

We make Atletico Nacional a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto~~2.00 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 9~~3 v 20

~~The market · Atletico Nacional win~~75% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atletico Nacional win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 77% to 75% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Nacional win	66%	75%	−9
Draw	22%	17%	+5
Deportivo Pasto win	13%	8%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	46%	41%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Atletico Nacional or draw	87%	92%	−5
Atletico Nacional clean sheet	48%	–	–
Deportivo Pasto clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.7%

0123450 7.2 4.2 1 12.2 10.2 3.6 2 12.7 9.4 3.5 3 8.5 6.3 2.3 4 4.3 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Nacional down, Deportivo Pasto across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,543 Primera A matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 346 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Nacional at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Pasto away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Atletico Nacional, 0.75 for Deportivo Pasto. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEP 1–2 ATL · DEP 2–2 ATL · ATL 3–0 DEP · ATL 2–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 5 Sept

ATLETICO NACIONAL

LDWDWL0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 0–1

DEPORTIVO PASTO

DWWLDL2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
2	America de Cali	14	+16	28
3	Atletico Nacional	13	+13	26
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	13	+10	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	14	0	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
15	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
16	Junior	14	−4	12
17	Chico	14	−14	12
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	13	−10	9