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Atletico Nacional v Deportes Tolima

Atletico Nacional

0–0Full time

Deportes Tolima

Primera A · FRI 9 OCT · Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Atletico Nacional win53%

Draw26%

Deportes Tolima win20%

Published before kick-off · 8 Oct 23:36

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 00:05

Venue · Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí

Referee · Edwin Trujillo

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional

4-2-3-1

34 F. Armani

6 A. Roman

3 N. Parra

4 C. Haydar

20 M. Casco

21 J. Campuzano

22 E. Cabrera

27 Y. A. Perlaza Perea

23 J. Rodriguez

10 E. Cardona

99 I. Poveda

Coach · Lucas Gonzalez

Substitutes

25 · L. Marquinez

33 · S. Velasquez

31 · X. Rios

80 · J. Zapata

8 · M. Uribe

19 · J. Rengifo

26 · F. Marin

30 · K. Parra Atehortua

32 · E. Benitez

Deportes Tolima

4-2-3-1

1 Neto Volpi

33 J. Mosquera

80 B. Rovira

2 A. Angulo

30 S. P. Barbosa Gomez

32 S. Guzman

14 H. E. Martinez Yepez

8 E. Valencia

10 L. Sanchez

20 J. Hernandez

15 S. Aguayo

Coach · Fernando Suarez Luis

Substitutes

13 · M. Ortega

5 · J. Mera

16 · V. Reyes

28 · E. Lopez

24 · A. Parra Osorio

11 · J. Valencia

9 · L. Sandoval

29 · N. Sanchez

34 · G. Moreno

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional

4-2-3-1

34 F. Armani

6 A. Roman

3 N. Parra

4 C. Haydar

20 M. Casco

21 J. Campuzano

22 E. Cabrera

27 Y. A. Perlaza Perea

23 J. Rodriguez

10 E. Cardona

99 I. Poveda

Coach · Lucas Gonzalez

Substitutes

25 · L. Marquinez

33 · S. Velasquez

31 · X. Rios

80 · J. Zapata

8 · M. Uribe

19 · J. Rengifo

26 · F. Marin

30 · K. Parra Atehortua

32 · E. Benitez

Deportes Tolima

4-2-3-1

1 Neto Volpi

33 J. Mosquera

80 B. Rovira

2 A. Angulo

30 S. P. Barbosa Gomez

32 S. Guzman

14 H. E. Martinez Yepez

8 E. Valencia

10 L. Sanchez

20 J. Hernandez

15 S. Aguayo

Coach · Fernando Suarez Luis

Substitutes

13 · M. Ortega

5 · J. Mera

16 · V. Reyes

28 · E. Lopez

24 · A. Parra Osorio

11 · J. Valencia

9 · L. Sandoval

29 · N. Sanchez

34 · G. Moreno

Published on launch night, before our public record began. Shown as it was published, and not counted in the record.

Our number · atletico nacional winPublished 8 Oct 23:36

53% The market57%

Us53%

~~Market~~57%

We make Atletico Nacional a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Nacional win	53%	57%	−3
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Deportes Tolima win	20%	18%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Atletico Nacional or draw	80%	82%	−2
Atletico Nacional clean sheet	40%	–	–
Deportes Tolima clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.7 6.5 3.3 1 12.1 12.3 5.3 2 10.4 9.4 4.3 3 5.7 5.1 2.4 4 2.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Nacional down, Deportes Tolima across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,518 Primera A matches up to 8 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.6% of games this season, across 321 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 2.76 goals a meeting; 9 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Nacional at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportes Tolima away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Atletico Nacional, 0.92 for Deportes Tolima. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 8 Oct 23:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.76

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 17

~~Both scored~~10 of 17

~~Last meetings~~ATL 3–1 DEP · DEP 0–1 ATL · DEP 1–0 ATL · DEP 0–0 ATL

Form · last six in Primera A

ATLETICO NACIONAL

WWWLDW5–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

DEPORTES TOLIMA

WLLDDD2–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	35	+39	77
2	America de Cali	33	+23	61
3	Santa Fe	35	+18	57
4	Deportes Tolima	35	+12	56
5	Junior	36	+6	53
6	Deportivo Cali	31	+15	51
7	Millonarios	32	+15	47
8	Once Caldas	33	+7	47
9	Bucaramanga	30	+16	46
10	Independiente Medellin	31	+5	46
11	Deportivo Pasto	33	−8	43
12	Internacional de Bogota	34	−11	41
13	Águilas Doradas	30	−6	40
14	Llaneros	31	−4	36
15	Fortaleza FC	31	−10	32
16	Cucuta	31	−17	31
17	Chico	30	−25	29
18	Alianza Valledupar	31	−26	28
19	Jaguares	30	−22	25
20	Deportivo Pereira	30	−27	18

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional

Deportes Tolima

Match statistics

Line-ups

Atletico Nacional

Deportes Tolima

Head to head

Form · last six in Primera A

The table