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America de Cali v Independiente Medellin

America de Cali

1–2Full time

Independiente Medellin

Primera A · MON 12 OCT · Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 05:00

America de Cali 1–2 Independiente Medellin AMERICA DE CALI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said America de Cali win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.920

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.976

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said America de Cali win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: America de Cali was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–23
1′KICK-OFF America de Cali v Independiente Medellin
2′Much as we predicted: America de Cali was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–26–23
8′A goal for America de Cali on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–8
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' America de Cali 1–0 Independiente Medellin
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' America de Cali win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
9′A goal for America de Cali on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' America de Cali win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' America de Cali win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
10′A goal for America de Cali on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
11′We published America de Cali at 50%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
12′We published America de Cali at 50%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
13′Luis Quiñones scores for America de Cali on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' America de Cali 1–1 Independiente Medellin · Luis Quiñones
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' America de Cali win: 50% at kick-off, 45% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' America de Cali win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' America de Cali 1–1 Independiente Medellin · Luis Escorcia
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' America de Cali win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' America de Cali win: 50% at kick-off, 45% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' America de Cali win: 50% at kick-off, 77% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' America de Cali win: 50% at kick-off, 45% now
38′SUBSTITUTION · 37' America de Cali · On: Yani Quintero · Off: Mateo Castillo Corrected
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Dany Rosero · America de Cali
45′🟥 RED CARD · 47' Luis Quiñones · America de Cali
45′HALF-TIME America de Cali 1–1 Independiente Medellin
46′SECOND HALF America de Cali 1–1 Independiente Medellin
47′🟥 RED CARD · 47' Dany Rosero · America de Cali
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Rafael Carrascal · America de Cali
55′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Rafael Carrascal · America de Cali
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Halam Stiven Loboa Diaz · Independiente Medellin
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Independiente Medellin · On: John Montano · Off: Yony González Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Independiente Medellin · On: Baldomero Perlaza · Off: Halam Stiven Loboa Diaz Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Independiente Medellin · On: Keiner David Klinger Vasquez · Off: Daniel Cataño Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' America de Cali · On: Jan Lucumi · Off: Tomás Ángel Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' John Montano · Independiente Medellin
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' America de Cali · On: Daniel Valencia · Off: Yeison Guzmán Corrected
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' America de Cali 1–2 Independiente Medellin · Luis Escorcia
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' America de Cali 1–2 Independiente Medellin · Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Baldomero Perlaza · Independiente Medellin
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Independiente Medellin · On: Kevin Andres Mantilla Camargo · Off: Luis Escorcia Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Independiente Medellin · On: Enzo Miguel·Larrosa Martinez · Off: Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez Corrected
FTFULL TIME America de Cali 1–2 Independiente Medellin
FTAmerica de Cali 1–2 Independiente Medellin · America de Cali win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

America de Cali win50%

Draw28%

Independiente Medellin win23%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 02:15

VenueOlímpico Pascual Guerrero

RefereeJose Alexander Ortiz Novoa

Line-ups

America de Cali

4-2-3-1

Independiente Medellin

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

America de Cali

Independiente Medellin

7Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	America de Cali	33	+23	61
10	Independiente Medellin	31	+5	46

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

America de Cali

4-2-3-1

1 Jean

13 M. Castillo

24 C. Tovar

3 D. Rosero

14 M. Mina

15 R. Carrascal

5 J. Escobar

23 L. Quinones

10 Y. Guzman

88 J. Palacios

21 T. Angel

Coach · David Gonzalez

Substitutes

12 · J. Montoya

30 · O. Bertel

2 · M. Torres

77 · E. Tortolero

18 · Y. Quintero

29 · C. Amu

9 · D. Valencia

17 · J. Lucumi

36 · J. A. Camacho Anchico

Independiente Medellin

4-4-2

25 E. Chaux

26 E. Mena Perea

39 L. Escorcia

5 J. Varela

18 F. Fabra

30 H. Palacios

16 H. Loboa

6 D. Moreno

11 Yony Gonzalez

10 D. Catano

32 C. Lucumi

Coach · Luis Perea

Substitutes

1 · S. Ichazo

4 · K. Mantilla

19 · A. Simarra

14 · B. Perlaza

31 · D. Moreno

34 · K. Klinger

90 · E. Larrosa

20 · J. Montano

24 · N. Erazo

Our number · america de cali winPublished 12 Oct 02:00

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make America de Cali a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · america de cali win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
America de Cali win	50%	52%	−3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Independiente Medellin win	23%	21%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	72%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−5
America de Cali or draw	77%	79%	−2
America de Cali clean sheet	40%	–	–
Independiente Medellin clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.7 7.4 3.8 1 12.3 13.0 5.7 2 9.8 9.1 4.2 3 4.9 4.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+America de Cali down, Independiente Medellin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,524 Primera A matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 327 played.

Head to head

21 previous meetings, 2.52 goals a meeting; 10 of 21 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

America de Cali at home: 2.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente Medellin away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for America de Cali, 0.93 for Independiente Medellin. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 02:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

21 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.52

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 21

~~Both scored~~12 of 21

~~Last meetings~~IND 2–1 AME · IND 1–1 AME · AME 2–1 IND · IND 3–0 AME

Form · last six in Primera A

AMERICA DE CALI

DWLDWW2–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

INDEPENDIENTE MEDELLIN

LDWLDL1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	36	+39	78
2	America de Cali	33	+23	61
3	Santa Fe	35	+18	57
4	Deportes Tolima	36	+12	57
5	Junior	37	+6	54
6	Deportivo Cali	32	+15	52
7	Once Caldas	34	+8	50
8	Millonarios	33	+15	48
9	Bucaramanga	30	+16	46
10	Independiente Medellin	31	+5	46
11	Deportivo Pasto	33	−8	43
12	Internacional de Bogota	35	−11	42
13	Águilas Doradas	31	−6	41
14	Llaneros	32	−5	36
15	Fortaleza FC	32	−10	33
16	Cucuta	31	−17	31
17	Chico	30	−25	29
18	Alianza Valledupar	32	−26	29
19	Jaguares	30	−22	25
20	Deportivo Pereira	31	−27	19