America de Cali v Fortaleza FC prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

America de CaliDrawFortaleza FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:15

Before kick-off · Match result · America de Cali 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

America de Cali are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: America de Cali 61%, draw 25%, Fortaleza FC 14%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on America de Cali v Fortaleza FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

America de Cali win61%

Draw25%

Fortaleza FC win14%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 23:15

RoundClausura · matchday 5

VenueOlímpico Pascual Guerrero

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

America de Cali

Fortaleza FC

7Days since last match9

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa Colombia

Last match: 21 Oct · Primera A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · america de cali winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make America de Cali a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · America de Cali v Fortaleza FC~~1.71 – 0.70

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 11~~3 v 18

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
America de Cali win	61%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Fortaleza FC win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
America de Cali or draw	86%	–	–
America de Cali clean sheet	50%	–	–
Fortaleza FC clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.7%

0123450 9.8 5.7 2.2 1 14.7 11.3 3.7 2 13.0 9.1 3.2 3 7.5 5.2 4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+America de Cali down, Fortaleza FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,545 Primera A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 348 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

America de Cali at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fortaleza FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for America de Cali, 0.70 for Fortaleza FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~FOR 1–2 AME · FOR 1–0 AME · AME 1–0 FOR · AME 1–1 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 11 Sept

AMERICA DE CALI

LDWWLD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

FORTALEZA FC

DLDDDL2–2 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9