America de Cali v Cucuta prediction · Primera A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

America de CaliDrawCucuta

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:05

Before kick-off · Match result · America de Cali 65%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

America de Cali are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: America de Cali 65%, draw 22%, Cucuta 13%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on America de Cali v CucutaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

America de Cali win65%

Draw22%

Cucuta win13%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:05

RoundClausura · matchday 16

Line-ups

America de Cali

4-2-3-1

Cucuta

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

America de Cali

Cucuta

2Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · Copa Colombia

Last match: 21 Oct · Primera A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

America de Cali

4-2-3-1

1 Jean Fernandes

3 Dany Rosero

2 Marlon Torres

22 Nicolás Hernández

7 Jhon Murillo

15 Rafael Carrascal

6 José Cavadia

23 Luis Quiñones

10 Yeison Guzmán

88 Tilman Palacios

21 Tomás Ángel

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · Juan Montoya

30 · Omar Bertel

44 · Brayan Córdoba

24 · Cristian Tovar

36 · Jhordy Camacho

29 · Camilo Amu

77 · Edson Tortolero

18 · Yani Quintero

17 · Jan Lucumí

Cucuta

5-4-1

12 Federico Abadía

26 Yair Joao Abonia Vasquez

2 Hernán Lópes

4 Jhon Quiñónes

30 Brayan Montaño

5 Victor Mejia

20 Dayan Pérez

10 Leider Berdugo

77 Carlos Rentería

11 Gustavo Torres

9 Jaime Peralta

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Juan David Ramírez

3 · Diego Calcaterra

27 · Mauricio Duarte

21 · Marlon Carabali

8 · Juan Ceballos

29 · Lucas Ríos

33 · Sebastián Tamara

32 · Jhonatan Agudelo

18 · Cristian Córdoba

Our number · america de cali winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 21 Oct 03:50 · locked at kick-off

65% The market71%

Us65%

~~Market~~71%

We make America de Cali a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · America de Cali v Cucuta~~1.92 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 14 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 21~~3 v 8

~~The market · America de Cali win~~71% · ours 65%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · America de Cali win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
America de Cali win	65%	71%	−6
Draw	22%	19%	+3
Cucuta win	13%	10%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
Both teams to score	45%	46%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	35%	−7
America de Cali or draw	87%	90%	−3
America de Cali clean sheet	48%	–	–
Cucuta clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 7.8 4.6 1 12.9 10.5 3.6 2 12.9 9.4 3.4 3 8.3 6.0 2.2 4 4.0 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+America de Cali down, Cucuta across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,545 Primera A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 348 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

America de Cali at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cucuta away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for America de Cali, 0.73 for Cucuta. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~CUC 2–0 AME

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 14 Sept

AMERICA DE CALI

LDWWLD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

CUCUTA

LLWWWW1–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
2	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
3	America de Cali	14	+16	28
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Cucuta	14	−2	21
9	Once Caldas	15	+2	20
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	14	−8	13
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9