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Alianza Valledupar v Internacional de Bogota

Alianza Valledupar

21:05Upcoming

Internacional de Bogota

Primera A · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Alianza ValleduparDrawInternacional de Bogota

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Alianza Valledupar 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alianza Valledupar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alianza Valledupar 46%, draw 28%, Internacional de Bogota 26%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Alianza Valledupar v Internacional de BogotaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Alianza Valledupar win46%

Draw28%

Internacional de Bogota win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:05

RoundClausura · matchday 16

VenueEstadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

RefereeF. Trujillo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alianza Valledupar

Internacional de Bogota

5Days since last match5

Last match: 20 Oct · Primera A

Last match: 21 Oct · Primera A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alianza valledupar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market39%

Us46%

~~Market~~39%

We make Alianza Valledupar a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alianza Valledupar v Internacional de Bogota~~1.45 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 17~~15 v 12

~~The market · Alianza Valledupar win~~39% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alianza Valledupar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza Valledupar win	46%	39%	+7
Draw	28%	30%	−2
Internacional de Bogota win	26%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	52%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	24%	27%	−3
Alianza Valledupar or draw	74%	69%	+5
Alianza Valledupar clean sheet	36%	–	–
Internacional de Bogota clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.4 7.9 4.4 1 11.6 13.2 6.3 2.2 2 8.9 8.9 4.5 3 4.3 4.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza Valledupar down, Internacional de Bogota across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,547 Primera A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 350 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza Valledupar at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Internacional de Bogota away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Alianza Valledupar, 1.02 for Internacional de Bogota. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~INT 2–1 ALI · ALI 2–0 INT · INT 0–2 ALI · INT 3–2 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera A this season · since 16 Sept

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR

WLWLDW2–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 1–0

INTERNACIONAL DE BOGOTA

LLDDDW2–3 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Clausura

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	America de Cali	15	+18	31
2	Atletico Nacional	14	+16	29
3	Deportivo Cali	15	+14	29
4	Millonarios	16	+10	26
5	Bucaramanga	14	+9	25
6	Santa Fe	14	+7	25
7	Independiente Medellin	14	+2	23
8	Once Caldas	16	+2	21
9	Cucuta	15	−4	21
10	Deportes Tolima	15	0	20
11	Águilas Doradas	15	−1	19
12	Internacional de Bogota	15	−3	17
13	Llaneros	15	−4	17
14	Junior	15	−3	15
15	Alianza Valledupar	14	−11	15
16	Chico	15	−13	15
17	Deportivo Pereira	15	−8	14
18	Fortaleza FC	14	−6	11
19	Jaguares	14	−12	10
20	Deportivo Pasto	14	−13	9