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Alianza Valledupar v Águilas Doradas

Alianza Valledupar

2–2Full time

Águilas Doradas

Primera A · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 02:30

Alianza Valledupar 2–2 Águilas Doradas ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alianza Valledupar win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.753

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.745

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 46 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alianza Valledupar win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alianza Valledupar 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–28–32
1′KICK-OFF Alianza Valledupar v Águilas Doradas
4′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Cristian Vergara · Alianza Valledupar
21′We said Alianza Valledupar at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–63
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Águilas Doradas
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Alianza Valledupar win: 39% at kick-off, 14% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Águilas Doradas win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Alianza Valledupar win 14%)
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Águilas Doradas · Iván Rojas
34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Águilas Doradas · On: Anthony Vásquez · Off: Fabián Suárez Corrected
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' John Ontaneda · Águilas Doradas
45′SECOND HALF Alianza Valledupar 0–2 Águilas Doradas
46′⚽ GOAL · 48' Alianza Valledupar 0–2 Águilas Doradas · Anthony Vásquez (assist Ricardo Marquez)
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Alianza Valledupar 0–2 Águilas Doradas · Iván Rojas
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Alianza Valledupar 0–2 Águilas Doradas · Anthony Vásquez
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Alianza Valledupar · On: Yeiner Londoño · Off: Charly Villegas González Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Águilas Doradas · On: Matías Ramírez · Off: Eduar Arízalas Corrected
61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Jair Castillo · Alianza Valledupar
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Andres Ricaurte · Águilas Doradas
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Ever Meza · Alianza Valledupar
75′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Cristian Vergara · Alianza Valledupar
75′⚽ GOAL · 21' Alianza Valledupar 0–2 Águilas Doradas · Iván Rojas (assist Andres Ricaurte)
75′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Águilas Doradas · On: Anthony Vásquez · Off: Fabián Suárez Corrected
75′🟨 YELLOW · 36' John Ontaneda · Águilas Doradas
75′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Alianza Valledupar · On: Misael Martinez · Off: Deinner Quiñones Corrected
75′⚽ GOAL · 48' Alianza Valledupar 0–2 Águilas Doradas · Anthony Vásquez (assist Ricardo Marquez)
75′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Alianza Valledupar · On: Yeiner Londoño · Off: Charly Villegas González Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Águilas Doradas · On: Matías Ramírez · Off: Eduar Arízalas Corrected
75′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Jair Castillo · Alianza Valledupar
75′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Andres Ricaurte · Águilas Doradas
75′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Ever Meza · Alianza Valledupar
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Yeiner Londoño · Alianza Valledupar
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Águilas Doradas · On: Juan Esteban·Avalo Trejos · Off: Ricardo Marquez Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Águilas Doradas · On: Juan Esteban·Avalo Trejos · Off: Ricardo Marquez Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Frank Lozano · Águilas Doradas
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Misael Martinez · Alianza Valledupar
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Alianza Valledupar · On: Josy Pérez · Off: Jair Castillo Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Alianza Valledupar · On: Ever Meza · Off: Jesús Muñoz Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Juan Viveros · Alianza Valledupar
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Alianza Valledupar · On: Pedro Franco · Off: Juan Viveros Corrected
89′⚽ GOAL · 90' Alianza Valledupar 0–2 Águilas Doradas · Misael Martinez
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Alianza Valledupar 1–2 Águilas Doradas · Misael Martinez
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' José Flabio Torres Díaz · Alianza Valledupar
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Josy Pérez · Alianza Valledupar
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Josy Pérez · Alianza Valledupar
98′⚽ GOAL · 98' Alianza Valledupar 2–2 Águilas Doradas · Misael Martinez
99′🟥 RED CARD · 99' Alianza Valledupar
99′⚽ GOAL · 99' Alianza Valledupar 2–2 Águilas Doradas · Jesus Figueroa
FTFULL TIME Alianza Valledupar 2–2 Águilas Doradas
FTAlianza Valledupar 2–2 Águilas Doradas · Alianza Valledupar win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Alianza Valledupar win39%

Draw29%

Águilas Doradas win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Referee · Wilmar Hernando Montano Guevara

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Alianza Valledupar

4-2-3-1

40 E. Beltran

23 I. Alba

22 J. Figueroa

32 J. Viveros

33 J. Lasso

55 W. Fernandez

7 J. Castillo

14 C. Villegas

10 D. Quinones

8 J. Munoz

18 C. Vergara

Coach · Flabio Torres

Substitutes

13 · A. Simancas

3 · K. Moreno

5 · P. Franco

25 · J. E. Perez Balcazar

6 · E. W. Meza Mercado

77 · M. Martinez

27 · Y. Londono

21 · S. Nieto

11 · B. Viafara

Águilas Doradas

4-2-3-1

1 J. Soto

26 D. Lozano

4 A. Mosquera

3 J. Ontaneda

32 J. Mena

19 F. Lozano

6 I. Rojas

15 F. A. Suarez Chalare

8 A. Ricaurte

7 E. Arizalas

21 R. Marquez

Coach · David Nino Casteblanco Juan

Substitutes

12 · J. Hurtado

28 · S. Rodriguez

30 · N. Lara Vasquez

25 · J. Roa

24 · J. E. Avalo Trejos

10 · J. Noguera

9 · A. Vasquez

16 · M. Ramirez

29 · T. Blandon

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Alianza Valledupar

4-2-3-1

40 E. Beltran

23 I. Alba

22 J. Figueroa

32 J. Viveros

33 J. Lasso

55 W. Fernandez

7 J. Castillo

14 C. Villegas

10 D. Quinones

8 J. Munoz

18 C. Vergara

Coach · Flabio Torres

Substitutes

13 · A. Simancas

3 · K. Moreno

5 · P. Franco

25 · J. E. Perez Balcazar

6 · E. W. Meza Mercado

77 · M. Martinez

27 · Y. Londono

21 · S. Nieto

11 · B. Viafara

Águilas Doradas

4-2-3-1

1 J. Soto

26 D. Lozano

4 A. Mosquera

3 J. Ontaneda

32 J. Mena

19 F. Lozano

6 I. Rojas

15 F. A. Suarez Chalare

8 A. Ricaurte

7 E. Arizalas

21 R. Marquez

Coach · David Nino Casteblanco Juan

Substitutes

12 · J. Hurtado

28 · S. Rodriguez

30 · N. Lara Vasquez

25 · J. Roa

24 · J. E. Avalo Trejos

10 · J. Noguera

9 · A. Vasquez

16 · M. Ramirez

29 · T. Blandon

Our number · alianza valledupar winPublished 10 Oct 00:00

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Alianza Valledupar a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · alianza valledupar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alianza Valledupar win	39%	39%	0
Draw	29%	30%	0
Águilas Doradas win	32%	31%	0
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	68%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	25%	−3
Alianza Valledupar or draw	68%	69%	0
Alianza Valledupar clean sheet	33%	–	–
Águilas Doradas clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 10.2 9.4 5.7 2.2 1 10.8 13.8 7.2 2.7 2 7.4 8.2 4.6 3 3.2 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alianza Valledupar down, Águilas Doradas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,520 Primera A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera A matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 323 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 2.54 goals a meeting; 7 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alianza Valledupar at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Águilas Doradas away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Alianza Valledupar, 1.12 for Águilas Doradas. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.54

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 13

~~Both scored~~5 of 13

~~Last meetings~~AGU 1–0 ALI · AGU 1–0 ALI · ALI 0–0 AGU · ALI 3–0 AGU

Form · last six in Primera A

ALIANZA VALLEDUPAR

LWWLWL0–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–3

ÁGUILAS DORADAS

DLDLLW2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atletico Nacional	36	+39	78
2	America de Cali	33	+23	61
3	Santa Fe	35	+18	57
4	Deportes Tolima	36	+12	57
5	Junior	36	+6	53
6	Deportivo Cali	31	+15	51
7	Millonarios	33	+15	48
8	Once Caldas	33	+7	47
9	Bucaramanga	30	+16	46
10	Independiente Medellin	31	+5	46
11	Deportivo Pasto	33	−8	43
12	Internacional de Bogota	34	−11	41
13	Águilas Doradas	30	−6	40
14	Llaneros	31	−4	36
15	Fortaleza FC	32	−10	33
16	Cucuta	31	−17	31
17	Chico	30	−25	29
18	Alianza Valledupar	31	−26	28
19	Jaguares	30	−22	25
20	Deportivo Pereira	30	−27	18