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Universidad de Concepcion v Deportes Limache

Universidad de Concepcion

23:00Upcoming

Deportes Limache

Primera División · SUN 25 OCT · Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Universidad de ConcepcionDrawDeportes Limache

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Deportes Limache 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportes Limache are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Universidad de Concepcion 36%, draw 23%, Deportes Limache 41%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Universidad de Concepcion v Deportes LimacheBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Universidad de Concepcion win36%

Draw23%

Deportes Limache win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueEstadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion

RefereeClaudio Diaz Mera

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Universidad de Concepcion

Deportes Limache

15Days since last match14

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportes limache winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market39%

Us41%

~~Market~~39%

We make Deportes Limache a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Universidad de Concepcion v Deportes Limache~~1.34 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 34~~15 v 6

~~The market · Deportes Limache win~~39% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportes Limache win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universidad de Concepcion win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Deportes Limache win	41%	39%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	61%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Universidad de Concepcion or draw	59%	61%	−2
Universidad de Concepcion clean sheet	23%	–	–
Deportes Limache clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.0 10.2 6.5 3.2 1 9.4 10.6 8.6 4.2 2 5.5 7.9 5.7 2.8 3 2.5 3.5 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universidad de Concepcion down, Deportes Limache across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,423 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universidad de Concepcion at home: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Deportes Limache away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Universidad de Concepcion, 1.46 for Deportes Limache. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–0 UNI · UNI 2–0 DEP · DEP 0–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

UNIVERSIDAD DE CONCEPCION

LWLLLD1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

DEPORTES LIMACHE

WLWWLD3–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	D. La Serena	25	−3	33
8	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
9	Concepción	25	−3	32
10	Huachipato	24	−6	32
11	Nublense	24	−9	32
12	A. Italiano	24	−5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	−10	28
14	Cobresal	25	−10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18