Universidad de Chile v Nublense prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 00:00

Universidad de Chile 6–0 Nublense UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Universidad de Chile win~~59%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.256

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.220

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Universidad de Chile win at 59%.
2′Much as we predicted: Universidad de Chile was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–24–19
2′KICK-OFF Universidad de Chile v Nublense
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Universidad de Chile 1–0 Nublense
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' Universidad de Chile 1–0 Nublense
13′13′ and it is 1–0: Maximiliano Guerrero on the scoresheet for Universidad de Chile. 1–0 · 81–13–6
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Universidad de Chile win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Universidad de Chile win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
15′We published Universidad de Chile at 59%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Universidad de Chile win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Tobías Reinhart · Universidad de Chile
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Universidad de Chile 2–0 Nublense · Maximiliano Guerrero
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Universidad de Chile 2–0 Nublense · Maximiliano Guerrero
45′SECOND HALF Universidad de Chile 2–0 Nublense
45′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Pablo Calderón · Nublense
47′🟥 RED CARD · 47' Universidad de Chile
47′🟥 RED CARD · 48' Pablo Calderón · Nublense
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Universidad de Chile 3–0 Nublense · Maximiliano Guerrero
55′⚽ GOAL · 56' Universidad de Chile 3–0 Nublense · Agustín Arce
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Universidad de Chile · On: Gonzalo Ezequiel Reyna · Off: Ignacio Vásquez
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Nublense · On: Fernando Ovelar · Off: Esteban Calderón
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Nublense · On: Diego Céspedes · Off: Robinson Manuel Rivera Zúñiga
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Nublense · On: Franco Rami · Off: Gabriel Graciani
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Universidad de Chile 4–0 Nublense · Agustín Arce
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Universidad de Chile 4–0 Nublense · Gonzalo Ezequiel Reyna (assist Agustín Arce)
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Universidad de Chile 5–0 Nublense · Gonzalo Ezequiel Reyna
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Universidad de Chile 5–0 Nublense · Eduardo Vargas
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Universidad de Chile · On: Marcelo Díaz · Off: Charles Aránguiz
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Universidad de Chile · On: Israel Poblete · Off: Tobías Reinhart
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Universidad de Chile · On: Juan Martin Lucero · Off: Maximiliano Guerrero
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Universidad de Chile 6–0 Nublense · Eduardo Vargas
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Universidad de Chile 6–0 Nublense · Fabián Hormazabal
FTFULL TIME Universidad de Chile 6–0 Nublense
FTUniversidad de Chile 6–0 Nublense · Universidad de Chile win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 20:45 · locked at kick-off

Universidad de Chile win59%

Draw21%

Nublense win20%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 21:00

VenueEstadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

RefereeCristian Garay

Line-ups

Universidad de Chile

4-2-3-1

Nublense

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Universidad de Chile

Nublense

29Days since last match30

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Universidad de Chile	23	+16	42
10	Nublense	23	−3	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Universidad de Chile

4-2-3-1

25 G. Castellón

3 I. Lichnovsky

22 M. Zaldivia

5 N. Ramírez

14 M. Morales

20 C. Aránguiz

15 T. Reinhart

7 M. Guerrero

28 A. Arce

23 I. Vásquez

11 E. Vargas

Coach · Fernando Gago

Substitutes

32 · G. Añasgo

8 · I. Poblete

18 · J. Lucero

17 · F. Hormazábal

6 · N. Fernández

21 · M. Díaz

19 · J. Altamirano

1 · C. Toselli

26 · Matias Riquelme

Nublense

3-4-3

1 N. Pérez

6 P. Calderón

5 F. Campos

15 S. Valencia

8 G. Graciani

21 L. Reyes

28 M. Rivera

14 J. Campusano

10 M. Plaza

20 I. Jeraldino

26 E. Calderón

Coach · Juan José Ribera

Substitutes

22 · A. Valdés

18 · D. Céspedes

23 · J. Gonzalez

11 · L. Molina

25 · H. Muñoz

7 · F. Ovelar

9 · F. Rami

13 · D. Saavedra

3 · C. Salomón

Our number · universidad de chile winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 20:45 · locked at kick-off

59% The market62%

Us59%

~~Market~~62%

We make Universidad de Chile a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · universidad de chile win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universidad de Chile win	59%	62%	−3
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Nublense win	20%	16%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	72%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	36%	−9
Universidad de Chile or draw	80%	84%	−4
Universidad de Chile clean sheet	42%	–	–
Nublense clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%

0123450 6.2 7.8 2.9 1 13.9 9.8 4.9 2 10.9 9.5 4.2 3 6.3 5.5 2.4 4 2.8 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universidad de Chile down, Nublense across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,422 Primera División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.7% of games this season, across 190 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.73 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universidad de Chile at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Nublense away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Universidad de Chile, 0.88 for Nublense. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 12 Oct 20:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.73

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~NUB 1–0 UNI · NUB 2–2 UNI · UNI 5–0 NUB · NUB 1–4 UNI

Form · last six in Primera División

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE

WWLLWW2–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 3–0

NUBLENSE

WWLLLL2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	+16	42
4	Palestino	24	+3	37
5	Everton de Vina	24	+9	36
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	Huachipato	24	−5	34
8	Coquimbo Unido	24	+2	32
9	Concepción	24	−1	32
10	Nublense	23	−3	32
11	D. La Serena	24	−5	30
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Union La Calera	24	−12	24
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Cobresal	24	−15	22