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Universidad de Chile v Everton de Vina

Universidad de Chile

21:00Upcoming

Everton de Vina

Primera División · MON 26 OCT · Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Universidad de ChileDrawEverton de Vina

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Universidad de Chile 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Universidad de Chile are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Universidad de Chile 58%, draw 21%, Everton de Vina 21%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Universidad de Chile v Everton de VinaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Universidad de Chile win58%

Draw21%

Everton de Vina win21%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueEstadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos

RefereeFranco Esteban Jimenez Lazo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Universidad de Chile

Everton de Vina

14Days since last match15

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · universidad de chile winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

58% The market56%

Us58%

~~Market~~56%

We make Universidad de Chile a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Universidad de Chile v Everton de Vina~~1.81 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 15 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 45 v 39~~2 v 4

~~The market · Universidad de Chile win~~56% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Universidad de Chile win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universidad de Chile win	58%	56%	+2
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Everton de Vina win	21%	20%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
Universidad de Chile or draw	79%	80%	−1
Universidad de Chile clean sheet	39%	–	–
Everton de Vina clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 5.3 7.3 2.9 1 12.6 9.7 5.1 2 10.3 9.7 4.6 3 6.2 5.8 2.8 4 2.8 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universidad de Chile down, Everton de Vina across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,421 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 189 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universidad de Chile at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Everton de Vina away: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Universidad de Chile, 0.95 for Everton de Vina. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EVE 0–1 UNI · UNI 1–1 EVE · EVE 0–0 UNI · UNI 2–0 EVE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 15 Aug

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE

WLLWWW3–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 6–0

EVERTON DE VINA

DWWLWW1–1 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
8	Concepción	24	−1	32
9	Huachipato	24	−6	32
10	Nublense	24	−9	32
11	D. La Serena	24	−5	30
12	A. Italiano	24	−5	29
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Cobresal	24	−10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18