Union La Calera v U. Catolica prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Union La CaleraDrawU. Catolica

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · U. Catolica 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

U. Catolica are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Union La Calera 29%, draw 23%, U. Catolica 48%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Union La Calera v U. CatolicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Union La Calera win29%

Draw23%

U. Catolica win48%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueMunicipal Nicolas Chahuan

RefereeCristian Garay

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Union La Calera

U. Catolica

14Days since last match29

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

Last match: 27 Sept · Copa Chile

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · u. catolica winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market48%

Us48%

~~Market~~48%

We make U. Catolica a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Union La Calera v U. Catolica~~1.11 – 1.53

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 8 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 42~~16 v 3

~~The market · U. Catolica win~~48% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · U. Catolica win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Union La Calera win	29%	25%	+4
Draw	23%	27%	−4
U. Catolica win	48%	48%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
Union La Calera or draw	52%	52%	0
Union La Calera clean sheet	22%	–	–
U. Catolica clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.1 12.3 8.3 4.3 1 9.3 10.7 9.1 4.6 2 4.4 6.6 5.0 2.6 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Union La Calera down, U. Catolica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,422 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 190 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Union La Calera at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). U. Catolica away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Union La Calera, 1.53 for U. Catolica. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UCA 0–0 UNI · UNI 1–1 UCA · UCA 1–2 UNI · UCA 2–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 8 Aug

UNION LA CALERA

LDLLWD1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

U. CATOLICA

WLWWWW2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	D. La Serena	25	−3	33
8	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
9	Concepción	25	−3	32
10	Huachipato	24	−6	32
11	Nublense	24	−9	32
12	A. Italiano	24	−5	29
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Cobresal	24	−10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18