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U. Catolica v A. Italiano

U. Catolica

–Postponed

A. Italiano

Primera División · SUN 11 OCT · San Carlos de Apoquindo

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

U. Catolica win58%

Draw20%

A. Italiano win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:00

Venue · San Carlos de Apoquindo

Referee · Mathias Riquelme

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · u. catolica winPublished 10 Oct 08:34

58% The market60%

Us58%

~~Market~~60%

We make U. Catolica a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
U. Catolica win	58%	60%	−2
Draw	20%	23%	−3
A. Italiano win	22%	17%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	77%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	34%	+1
U. Catolica or draw	78%	83%	−5
U. Catolica clean sheet	35%	–	–
A. Italiano clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 4.0 6.8 2.9 1 11.1 9.1 5.5 2 9.3 9.8 5.2 3 5.9 6.2 3.3 4 2.8 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+U. Catolica down, A. Italiano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,416 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.82 goals a meeting; 6 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

U. Catolica at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). A. Italiano away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.90 goals for U. Catolica, 1.06 for A. Italiano. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.82

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 11

~~Both scored~~7 of 11

~~Last meetings~~AIT 3–4 UCA · AIT 1–1 UCA · UCA 3–1 AIT · AIT 2–1 UCA

Form · last six in Primera División

U. CATOLICA

WLWWWW2–0 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–2

A. ITALIANO

DDDLWW2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	23	+26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	+16	42
4	Palestino	23	+3	36
5	Deportes Limache	23	+8	33
6	Everton de Vina	23	+8	33
7	Nublense	23	−3	32
8	Concepción	23	−1	31
9	Huachipato	23	−7	31
10	D. La Serena	23	−4	30
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	−1	29
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28
13	O'Higgins	23	−8	27
14	Union La Calera	23	−12	23
15	Universidad de Concepcion	23	−22	22
16	Cobresal	23	−15	21