Palestino v Colo Colo prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PalestinoDrawColo Colo

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Colo Colo 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Colo Colo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Palestino 38%, draw 23%, Colo Colo 39%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Palestino v Colo ColoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Palestino win38%

Draw23%

Colo Colo win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 25

VenueMunicipal de La Cisterna

RefereePiero Maza Gomez

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Palestino

Colo Colo

14Days since last match14

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colo colo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market46%

Us39%

~~Market~~46%

We make Colo Colo a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Palestino v Colo Colo~~1.39 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 16 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 37 v 54~~5 v 1

~~The market · Colo Colo win~~46% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Colo Colo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Palestino win	38%	28%	+10
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Colo Colo win	39%	46%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Palestino or draw	61%	54%	+7
Palestino clean sheet	25%	–	–
Colo Colo clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.9 9.8 6.1 2.9 1 9.7 10.5 8.3 3.9 2 5.9 8.2 5.7 2.7 3 2.7 3.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Palestino down, Colo Colo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,422 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 190 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Palestino at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Colo Colo away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Palestino, 1.42 for Colo Colo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COL 0–1 PAL · PAL 0–0 COL · COL 1–1 PAL · PAL 2–3 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 16 Aug

PALESTINO

WWLWLD5–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–2

COLO COLO

DWWDDL2–2 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
8	Concepción	24	−1	32
9	Huachipato	24	−6	32
10	Nublense	24	−9	32
11	D. La Serena	24	−5	30
12	A. Italiano	24	−5	29
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Cobresal	24	−10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18