O'Higgins v Nublense prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

O'HigginsDrawNublense

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · O'Higgins 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

O'Higgins are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: O'Higgins 46%, draw 24%, Nublense 30%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on O'Higgins v NublenseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

O'Higgins win46%

Draw24%

Nublense win30%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueEstadio El Teniente

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

O'Higgins

Nublense

7Days since last match19

Last match: 25 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Nublense	24	−9	32
13	O'Higgins	25	−10	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · o'higgins winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make O'Higgins a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · O'Higgins v Nublense~~1.44 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 28 v 32~~13 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
O'Higgins win	46%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Nublense win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
O'Higgins or draw	70%	–	–
O'Higgins clean sheet	34%	–	–
Nublense clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 6.8 10.0 4.8 1 12.7 11.1 6.8 2.5 2 8.1 8.8 4.8 3 3.9 4.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+O'Higgins down, Nublense across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,423 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

O'Higgins at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nublense away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for O'Higgins, 1.10 for Nublense. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~OHI 1–0 NUB · NUB 2–1 OHI · NUB 0–2 OHI · OHI 4–2 NUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 23 Aug

O'HIGGINS

LLWLLD0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

NUBLENSE

WLLLLL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–6

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	D. La Serena	25	−3	33
8	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
9	Concepción	25	−3	32
10	Huachipato	24	−6	32
11	Nublense	24	−9	32
12	A. Italiano	24	−5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	−10	28
14	Cobresal	25	−10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18