O'Higgins v Cobresal prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01

O'Higgins 1–1 Cobresal O'HIGGINS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said O'Higgins win~~48%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.939

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.991

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said O'Higgins win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: O'Higgins was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–30
1′KICK-OFF O'Higgins v Cobresal
32′7 shots for Cobresal, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 42–30–28
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Stefan Pino · Cobresal
41′We published O'Higgins at 48%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–7
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' O'Higgins 1–0 Cobresal
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' O'Higgins win: 48% at kick-off, 73% now
42′O'Higgins ahead on 40′ through Nicolas Garrido. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
45′HALF-TIME O'Higgins 1–0 Cobresal
46′SECOND HALF O'Higgins 1–0 Cobresal
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cobresal · On: Leroy Janpol Morales Napa · Off: Benjamín Valenzuela
48′We published O'Higgins at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Julián Brea · Cobresal
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' O'Higgins win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
65′We published O'Higgins at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
66′Stefan Pino scores for Cobresal on 65′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–53–20
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' O'Higgins 1–1 Cobresal · Stefan Pino
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' O'Higgins win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was O'Higgins win 80%)
67′We said O'Higgins at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–54–19
68′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 26–55–19
71′We said O'Higgins at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–59–17
71′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Juan Fuentes · Cobresal
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' O'Higgins · On: Bryan Rabello · Off: Ignacio Schor
76′We said O'Higgins at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Alan Robledo · O'Higgins
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' O'Higgins win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Cobresal · On: Franco Frias · Off: Stefan Pino
81′We said O'Higgins at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Cobresal · On: Aaron Astudillo · Off: Juan Fuentes
86′We said O'Higgins at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–85–6
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' O'Higgins win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' O'Higgins · On: Luis Pavez · Off: Leandro Diaz
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' O'Higgins · On: Thiago Vecino · Off: Tomas Avilés
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' O'Higgins · On: Joaquín Tapia · Off: Walter Bou
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' O'Higgins · On: Santiago Federico Toloza · Off: Bastián Yáñez
91′We said O'Higgins at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
FTFULL TIME O'Higgins 1–1 Cobresal
FTO'Higgins 1–1 Cobresal · O'Higgins win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

O'Higgins are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: O'Higgins 48%, draw 22%, Cobresal 30%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on O'Higgins v CobresalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

O'Higgins win48%

Draw22%

Cobresal win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueEstadio El Teniente

RefereeDiego Flores Seguel

Line-ups

O'Higgins

4-2-3-1

Cobresal

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

O'Higgins

Cobresal

14Days since last match14

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Cobresal	24	−10	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

O'Higgins

4-2-3-1

31 O. Carabalí

3 Felipe Andrés Faúndez González

22 A. Robledo

21 N. Garrido

20 L. Díaz

8 F. Ogaz

17 T. Avilés

25 I. Schor

28 W. Bou

29 B. Yáñez

9 A. Castillo

Coach · Lucas Bovaglio

Substitutes

33 · M. Brizuela

14 · M. Maturana

6 · L. Pavez

1 · J. Peña

10 · B. Rabello

30 · J. Tapia

7 · S. Toloza

32 · T. Vecino

34 · B. Leiva

Cobresal

4-4-2

12 J. Santander

23 G. Pacheco

20 J. Tiznado

18 C. Moreno

15 A. Castillo

16 F. Bechtholdt

13 Benjamin Valenzuela

38 F. Villagrán

17 J. Fuentes

8 S. Pino

11 J. Brea

Coach · G. Huerta

Substitutes

22 · A. Astudillo

10 · B. Carvallo

32 · F. Frías

14 · R. Huerta

6 · E. Valencia

7 · C. Yanis

39 · L. Morales

44 · Camilo Sepulveda

43 · V. Campos

Our number · o'higgins winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market59%

Us48%

~~Market~~59%

We make O'Higgins a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · O'Higgins v Cobresal~~1.68 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 25~~13 v 14

~~The market · O'Higgins win~~59% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · O'Higgins win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
O'Higgins win	48%	59%	−11
Draw	22%	22%	0
Cobresal win	30%	18%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	57%	58%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
O'Higgins or draw	70%	82%	−12
O'Higgins clean sheet	28%	–	–
Cobresal clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.1%

0123450 4.2 7.9 4.2 1 10.1 9.9 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.2 5.2 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+O'Higgins down, Cobresal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,421 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 189 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

O'Higgins at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Cobresal away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for O'Higgins, 1.27 for Cobresal. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 24 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COB 2–3 OHI · OHI 1–0 COB · COB 0–0 OHI · COB 3–1 OHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 16 Aug

O'HIGGINS

DLLWLL2–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2

COBRESAL

LDWLWD0–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
8	Concepción	24	−1	32
9	Huachipato	24	−6	32
10	Nublense	24	−9	32
11	D. La Serena	24	−5	30
12	A. Italiano	24	−5	29
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Cobresal	24	−10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18