Nublense v Coquimbo Unido prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NublenseDrawCoquimbo Unido

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Coquimbo Unido 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Coquimbo Unido just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Nublense 36%, draw 24%, Coquimbo Unido 40%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Nublense v Coquimbo UnidoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nublense win36%

Draw24%

Coquimbo Unido win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 25

VenueEstadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas

RefereeHector Jona

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nublense

Coquimbo Unido

13Days since last match14

Last match: 12 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
10	Nublense	24	−9	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coquimbo unido winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Coquimbo Unido a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nublense v Coquimbo Unido~~1.22 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 23 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 32 v 32~~10 v 7

~~The market · Coquimbo Unido win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Coquimbo Unido win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nublense win	36%	32%	+4
Draw	24%	29%	−5
Coquimbo Unido win	40%	38%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	47%	−1
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Nublense or draw	60%	62%	−2
Nublense clean sheet	28%	–	–
Coquimbo Unido clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 11.8 6.8 3.0 1 11.2 11.3 8.2 3.6 2 6.0 7.7 5.0 2.2 3 2.5 3.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nublense down, Coquimbo Unido across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,421 Primera División matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 189 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nublense at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Coquimbo Unido away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Nublense, 1.30 for Coquimbo Unido. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~COQ 1–1 NUB · COQ 2–1 NUB · NUB 0–0 COQ · COQ 1–0 NUB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 23 Aug

NUBLENSE

WLLLLL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–6

COQUIMBO UNIDO

DLWLLW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 5–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
8	Concepción	24	−1	32
9	Huachipato	24	−6	32
10	Nublense	24	−9	32
11	D. La Serena	24	−5	30
12	A. Italiano	24	−5	29
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Cobresal	24	−10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18