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Huachipato v O'Higgins

Huachipato

2–0Full time

O'Higgins

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Las Higueras

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 00:01

Huachipato 2–0 O'Higgins HUACHIPATO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Huachipato win~~46%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.443

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Huachipato win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Huachipato 46% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Huachipato v O'Higgins
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Leandro Diaz · O'Higgins
14′Little has changed for our model: Huachipato 46% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
15′Little has changed for our model: Huachipato 46% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–29
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Claudio Sepúlveda · Huachipato
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Huachipato 1–0 O'Higgins · Maximiliano Rodríguez
45′HALF-TIME Huachipato 1–0 O'Higgins
46′SECOND HALF Huachipato 1–0 O'Higgins
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Huachipato 1–1 O'Higgins · Thiago Vecino
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' O'Higgins · On: Joaquín Tapia · Off: Santiago Federico Toloza
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Huachipato · On: Ezequiel Martin Canete · Off: Kevin Altez
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Huachipato 2–0 O'Higgins · Maximiliano Rodríguez
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Huachipato 2–0 O'Higgins · Claudio Sepúlveda
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Sergio Nunez · Huachipato
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Huachipato · On: Claudio Torres · Off: H. Antiñirre
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' O'Higgins · On: Bryan Rabello · Off: Bastián Yáñez
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Huachipato · On: Claudio Torres · Off: H. Antiñirre
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' O'Higgins · On: Cristián Morales · Off: Felipe Faundez
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' O'Higgins · On: Esteban Moreira · Off: Thiago Vecino
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Huachipato · On: Lionel Altamirano · Off: Sergio Nunez
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Huachipato · On: Carlos Herrera · Off: Maicol Leon
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Cristián Morales · O'Higgins
FTHuachipato 2–0 O'Higgins · Huachipato win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Huachipato win46%

Draw22%

O'Higgins win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 21:30

Venue · Las Higueras

Referee · Cristian Galaz Sepulveda

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Huachipato

4-1-3-2

1 S. Mella

20 C. Toro

8 P. Vargas

5 R. Caroca

26 H. Antiñirre

6 C. Sepúlveda

7 M. Briceño

24 M. León

30 K. Altez

19 S. Núñez

15 M. Rodríguez

Coach · J. García

Substitutes

29 · C. Torres

12 · C. Bravo

16 · L. Arriagada

9 · L. Altamirano

10 · E. Cañete

22 · Javier Nicolás Cárcamo Cifuentes

11 · J. Figueroa

21 · C. Herrera

3 · B. Mellado

O'Higgins

4-1-4-1

31 O. Carabalí

3 Felipe Andrés Faúndez González

22 A. Robledo

21 N. Garrido

20 L. Díaz

17 T. Avilés

28 W. Bou

34 B. Leiva

7 S. Toloza

29 B. Yáñez

32 T. Vecino

Coach · Lucas Bovaglio

Substitutes

2 · C. Morales

18 · E. Moreira

27 · J. Movillo

1 · J. Peña

5 · G. Pinto

10 · B. Rabello

25 · I. Schor

14 · M. Maturana

30 · J. Tapia

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Huachipato

4-1-3-2

1 S. Mella

20 C. Toro

8 P. Vargas

5 R. Caroca

26 H. Antiñirre

6 C. Sepúlveda

7 M. Briceño

24 M. León

30 K. Altez

19 S. Núñez

15 M. Rodríguez

Coach · J. García

Substitutes

29 · C. Torres

12 · C. Bravo

16 · L. Arriagada

9 · L. Altamirano

10 · E. Cañete

22 · Javier Nicolás Cárcamo Cifuentes

11 · J. Figueroa

21 · C. Herrera

3 · B. Mellado

O'Higgins

4-1-4-1

31 O. Carabalí

3 Felipe Andrés Faúndez González

22 A. Robledo

21 N. Garrido

20 L. Díaz

17 T. Avilés

28 W. Bou

34 B. Leiva

7 S. Toloza

29 B. Yáñez

32 T. Vecino

Coach · Lucas Bovaglio

Substitutes

2 · C. Morales

18 · E. Moreira

27 · J. Movillo

1 · J. Peña

5 · G. Pinto

10 · B. Rabello

25 · I. Schor

14 · M. Maturana

30 · J. Tapia

Our number · huachipato winPublished 10 Oct 21:35

46% The market33%

Us46%

~~Market~~33%

We make Huachipato a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · huachipato win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 32% to 33% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Huachipato win	46%	33%	+13
Draw	22%	28%	−5
O'Higgins win	32%	40%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	74%	77%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−4
Huachipato or draw	68%	60%	+8
Huachipato clean sheet	30%	–	–
O'Higgins clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.4%

0123450 5.2 9.4 4.8 1 11.4 10.4 7.2 2.9 2 7.5 9.0 5.4 2.2 3 3.8 4.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Huachipato down, O'Higgins across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,416 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 1.55 goals a meeting; 2 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Huachipato at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). O'Higgins away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Huachipato, 1.21 for O'Higgins. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 21:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.55

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 11

~~Both scored~~3 of 11

~~Last meetings~~OHI 0–2 HUA · HUA 2–1 OHI · OHI 0–0 HUA · HUA 1–0 OHI

Form · last six in Primera División

HUACHIPATO

LLLDWW1–4 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0

O'HIGGINS

LDLLWL1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	23	+26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	+16	42
4	Palestino	23	+3	36
5	Deportes Limache	23	+8	33
6	Everton de Vina	23	+8	33
7	Nublense	23	−3	32
8	Concepción	23	−1	31
9	Huachipato	23	−7	31
10	D. La Serena	23	−4	30
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	−1	29
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28
13	O'Higgins	23	−8	27
14	Union La Calera	23	−12	23
15	Universidad de Concepcion	23	−22	22
16	Cobresal	23	−15	21