Everton de Vina v D. La Serena prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Everton de Vina 3–2 D. La Serena EVERTON DE VINA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Everton de Vina win~~55%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.309

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.298

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Everton de Vina win at 55%.
2′Much as we predicted: Everton de Vina was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
22′Felipe Chamorro scores for D. La Serena on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 23–26–51
23′Felipe Chamorro scores for D. La Serena on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 23–26–51
32′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Nicolás Baeza · Everton de Vina
36′🟨 YELLOW · 37' F. Dinamarca · D. La Serena
43′28′ and it is 1–1: Julian Alfaro on the scoresheet for Everton de Vina. 1–1 · 42–36–21
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Everton de Vina win: 55% at kick-off, 42% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Everton de Vina win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was D. La Serena win 21%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Everton de Vina win: 55% at kick-off, 23% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' D. La Serena win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Everton de Vina win 23%)
44′28′ and it is 1–1: Julian Alfaro on the scoresheet for Everton de Vina. 1–1 · 42–37–21
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Everton de Vina win: 55% at kick-off, 23% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' D. La Serena win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Everton de Vina win 23%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Everton de Vina win: 55% at kick-off, 42% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Everton de Vina win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was D. La Serena win 21%)
45′SECOND HALF Everton de Vina 1–1 D. La Serena
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Everton de Vina win: 55% at kick-off, 42% now
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Everton de Vina win: 55% at kick-off, 42% now
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Lucas Alarcon · D. La Serena
54′SUBSTITUTION · 54' D. La Serena · On: Gonzalo Escalante · Off: Felipe Chamorro
55′⚽ GOAL · 56' Everton de Vina 1–1 D. La Serena · Matías Marín
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Everton de Vina 1–2 D. La Serena · Matías Marín
62′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Bruno Gutierrez · D. La Serena
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' D. La Serena · On: Diego Rubio · Off: Jeisson Vargas
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Everton de Vina · On: Josué Miguel Nehemías Ovalle Aranda · Off: Cristian Palacios
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Everton de Vina · On: Braian Aaron Martínez · Off: Emiliano Ramos
76′⚽ GOAL · 78' Everton de Vina 1–2 D. La Serena · Braian Aaron Martínez
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Everton de Vina 2–2 D. La Serena · Braian Aaron Martínez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Everton de Vina · On: Vicente Fernández · Off: Nicolás Baeza
80′SUBSTITUTION · 82' D. La Serena · On: Alexander Oroz · Off: G. Figueroa
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' D. La Serena · On: Sebastián Díaz · Off: Matías Marín
82′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Lucas Soto · Everton de Vina
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Everton de Vina · On: Gustavo Charrupi · Off: Valentin Vidal
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Everton de Vina · On: Óscar Opazo · Off: Lucas Soto
88′⚽ GOAL · 89' Everton de Vina 2–2 D. La Serena · Alan Medina
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Everton de Vina 3–2 D. La Serena · Alan Medina
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Franco ian rasso · D. La Serena
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Ignacio González · Everton de Vina
FTFULL TIME Everton de Vina 3–2 D. La Serena
FTEverton de Vina 3–2 D. La Serena · Everton de Vina win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Everton de Vina win55%

Draw21%

D. La Serena win25%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:30

VenueSausalito

RefereeReinerio Alvarado

Line-ups

Everton de Vina

4-4-1-1

D. La Serena

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Everton de Vina

D. La Serena

29Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Everton de Vina	23	+8	33
10	D. La Serena	23	−4	30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Everton de Vina

4-4-1-1

1 I. González

8 L. Soto

37 V. Vidal

24 D. Oyarzún

14 N. Baeza

9 J. Alfaro

21 B. Berríos

7 J. Moya

11 E. Ramos

10 A. Medina

30 C. Palacios

Coach · W. Ribonetto

Substitutes

6 · G. Charrupí

15 · V. Fernández

5 · R. González

25 · E. Kirkman

28 · A. Leon

4 · H. Magallanes

29 · B. Martínez

2 · Ó. Opazo

20 · J. Ovalle

D. La Serena

3-4-3

31 J. Tapia

34 I. Rasso

5 L. Alarcón

33 R. Delgado

21 B. Gutiérrez

14 F. Chamorro

4 F. Mac Allister

26 F. Dinamarca

23 M. Marín

2 G. Figueroa

10 J. Vargas

Coach · Felipe Gutiérrez

Substitutes

29 · M. Pinto

11 · D. Rubio

7 · A. Oroz

1 · F. Lanzillota

9 · Á. Henríquez

16 · J. Gutiérrez

8 · G. Escalante

6 · S. Diaz

28 · Y. Salazar

Our number · everton de vina winPublished 11 Oct 16:29

55% The market55%

Us55%

~~Market~~55%

We make Everton de Vina a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · everton de vina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Everton de Vina win	55%	55%	−1
Draw	21%	24%	−3
D. La Serena win	25%	21%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	58%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Everton de Vina or draw	75%	79%	−4
Everton de Vina clean sheet	34%	–	–
D. La Serena clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.7%

0123450 4.7 7.7 3.4 1 11.7 9.7 5.9 2.1 2 9.1 9.6 5.1 3 5.3 5.7 3.0 4 2.4 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Everton de Vina down, D. La Serena across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,418 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 3.14 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Everton de Vina at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). D. La Serena away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Everton de Vina, 1.07 for D. La Serena. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 16:18. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DLA 1–0 EVE · EVE 3–1 DLA · DLA 2–1 EVE · EVE 4–0 DLA

Form · last six in Primera División

EVERTON DE VINA

WDWWLW4–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

D. LA SERENA

DWDWWL1–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	23	+26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	+16	42
4	Palestino	23	+3	36
5	Huachipato	24	−5	34
6	Deportes Limache	23	+8	33
7	Everton de Vina	23	+8	33
8	Nublense	23	−3	32
9	Concepción	23	−1	31
10	D. La Serena	23	−4	30
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	−1	29
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Union La Calera	23	−12	23
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Cobresal	24	−15	22