Deportes Limache v Palestino prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 02:30

Deportes Limache 2–2 Palestino DEPORTES LIMACHE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportes Limache win~~42%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.926

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportes Limache win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Deportes Limache v Palestino
2′Much as we predicted: Deportes Limache was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
7′Much as we predicted: Deportes Limache was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Marcelo Eggel · Palestino
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Deportes Limache 1–0 Palestino · Gonzalo Sosa
45′SECOND HALF Deportes Limache 1–0 Palestino
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Deportes Limache 1–0 Palestino
47′⚽ GOAL · 48' Deportes Limache 1–0 Palestino · Gonzalo Sosa
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Deportes Limache 1–1 Palestino · Gonzalo Sosa
52′⚽ GOAL · 53' Deportes Limache 1–1 Palestino · Sebastian Gallegos
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Deportes Limache 2–1 Palestino · Sebastian Gallegos
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Deportes Limache 2–1 Palestino · Gonzalo Sosa
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Palestino · On: Jonathan Benítez · Off: Marcelo Eggel
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Deportes Limache 2–2 Palestino · Gonzalo Sosa
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Deportes Limache 2–2 Palestino · Ronnie Fernández
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Palestino · On: Francisco Montes · Off: Gonzalo Tapia
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Palestino · On: Jose Bizama · Off: Bryan Carrasco
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Palestino · On: Ian Zohar Alegría Pindal · Off: César Munder
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Palestino · On: Nicolás Meza · Off: Sebastian Gallegos
FTFULL TIME Deportes Limache 2–2 Palestino
FTDeportes Limache 2–2 Palestino · Deportes Limache win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Deportes Limache win42%

Draw21%

Palestino win37%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 00:00

VenueEstadio Gustavo Ocaranza

RefereeFrancisco Gilabert

Line-ups

Deportes Limache

4-2-3-1

Palestino

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportes Limache

Palestino

27Days since last match29

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Palestino	23	+3	36
6	Deportes Limache	23	+8	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportes Limache

4-2-3-1

17 C. González

33 D. Escobar

2 A. Aguirre

24 A. Parot

11 Javier Rojas

27 T. Galletto

6 C. Fuentes

15 V. Álvarez

16 J. Meneses

19 D. Castro

9 G. Sosa

Coach · V. Rivero

Substitutes

5 · A. Alfonzo

7 · C. Morales

21 · F. Moya

10 · L. Valencia

14 · H. Martínez

32 · V. Cárcamo

1 · M. Bórquez

26 · M. Arturia

3 · B. Molina

Palestino

4-2-3-1

25 S. Pérez

7 B. Carrasco

2 V. Espinoza

3 E. Roco

28 D. Zúñiga

5 D. Glaby

18 S. Gallegos

17 M. Eggel

20 G. Tapia

27 C. Munder

9 R. Fernández

Coach · G. Farré

Substitutes

21 · M. Araya

11 · J. Benítez

16 · J. Bizama

4 · A. Ceza

23 · J. León

8 · N. Meza

15 · F. Montes

30 · I. Alegria

1 · S. Salas

Our number · deportes limache winPublished 12 Oct 00:00

42% The market42%

Us42%

~~Market~~42%

We make Deportes Limache a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportes limache win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportes Limache win	42%	42%	−1
Draw	21%	26%	−4
Palestino win	37%	32%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	59%	−2
Both teams to score	58%	62%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	39%	−3
Deportes Limache or draw	63%	68%	−5
Deportes Limache clean sheet	24%	–	–
Palestino clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.8 8.6 5.2 2.5 1 9.1 9.8 7.9 3.8 2 6.0 8.6 6.1 3.0 3 3.2 4.5 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportes Limache down, Palestino across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,418 Primera División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportes Limache at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Palestino away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Deportes Limache, 1.44 for Palestino. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 23:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PAL 1–0 DEP · PAL 2–1 DEP · DEP 0–1 PAL

Form · last six in Primera División

DEPORTES LIMACHE

LWLWWL1–3 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–1

PALESTINO

LWWLWL1–2 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	23	+26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	+16	42
4	Palestino	23	+3	36
5	Huachipato	24	−5	34
6	Deportes Limache	23	+8	33
7	Everton de Vina	23	+8	33
8	Nublense	23	−3	32
9	Concepción	23	−1	31
10	D. La Serena	23	−4	30
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	−1	29
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Union La Calera	23	−12	23
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Cobresal	24	−15	22