Coquimbo Unido v Union La Calera prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Coquimbo UnidoDrawUnion La Calera

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Coquimbo Unido 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Coquimbo Unido are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Coquimbo Unido 60%, draw 21%, Union La Calera 19%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Coquimbo Unido v Union La CaleraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Coquimbo Unido win60%

Draw21%

Union La Calera win19%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueFrancisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Coquimbo Unido

Union La Calera

19Days since last match19

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coquimbo unido winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Coquimbo Unido a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Coquimbo Unido v Union La Calera~~1.73 – 0.83

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 32 v 18~~8 v 16

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coquimbo Unido win	60%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Union La Calera win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Coquimbo Unido or draw	81%	–	–
Coquimbo Unido clean sheet	44%	–	–
Union La Calera clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.5%

0123450 6.7 7.6 2.7 1 14.5 9.9 4.6 2 11.5 9.4 3.9 3 6.6 5.5 2.3 4 2.9 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coquimbo Unido down, Union La Calera across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,423 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Union La Calera away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Coquimbo Unido, 0.83 for Union La Calera. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COQ 0–1 UNI · UNI 0–1 COQ · UNI 1–2 COQ · COQ 2–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 16 Aug

COQUIMBO UNIDO

DLWLLW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 5–2

UNION LA CALERA

LDLLWD1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	D. La Serena	25	−3	33
8	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
9	Concepción	25	−3	32
10	Huachipato	24	−6	32
11	Nublense	24	−9	32
12	A. Italiano	24	−5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	−10	28
14	Cobresal	25	−10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18