Coquimbo Unido v Colo Colo prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Coquimbo Unido 5–2 Colo Colo COLO COLO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Colo Colo win~~40%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.630

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.745

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colo Colo win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: Colo Colo was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 34–27–39
22′2′ and it is 1–1: Nicolas Johansen on the scoresheet for Coquimbo Unido. 1–1 · 32–32–36
26′Nicolas Johansen scores for Coquimbo Unido on 24′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 65–23–13
46′28′ and it is 3–1: Guido Vadalá on the scoresheet for Coquimbo Unido. 3–1 · 92–7–2
48′28′ and it is 3–1: Guido Vadalá on the scoresheet for Coquimbo Unido. 3–1 · 91–7–2
58′Benjamin Chandia scores for Coquimbo Unido on 58′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 94–5–1
79′We said Colo Colo at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 0%. 4–2 · 99–1–0
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Marcelo Correa · Colo Colo
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 95' Colo Colo win: 40% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME Coquimbo Unido 5–2 Colo Colo
FTCoquimbo Unido 5–2 Colo Colo · Colo Colo win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Coquimbo Unido win36%

Draw24%

Colo Colo win40%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 19:00

VenueFrancisco Sánchez Rumoroso

RefereeJose Cabero

Line-ups

Coquimbo Unido

4-2-3-1

Colo Colo

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Coquimbo Unido

Colo Colo

25Days since last match28

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	23	+26	54
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	−1	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Coquimbo Unido

4-2-3-1

13 Diego Sánchez

17 Francisco Salinas

2 Benjamín Gazzolo

3 Manuel Fernández

16 Juan Cornejo

8 Alejandro Camargo

7 Sebastián Galani

15 Cristián Zavala

10 Guido Vadalá

30 Benjamín Chandía

9 Nicolás Johansen

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · Luis Riveros

28 · Sebastián Cabrera

14 · Salvador Cordero

12 · Lucas Pratto

26 · Lukas Soza

1 · Gonzalo Flores

18 · Pablo Rodríguez

23 · Matías Zepeda

31 · Dixon Pereira

Colo Colo

3-4-2-1

25 Gabriel Maureira

2 Jonathan Villagra

23 Arturo Vidal

4 Joaquín Sosa

28 Jeyson Rojas

6 Tomás Alarcón

5 Víctor Felipe Méndez

26 Diego Ulloa

8 Álvaro Madrid

24 Leandro Hernández

9 Javier Correa

Coach · –

Substitutes

17 · Iván Román

10 · Lautaro Pastrán

11 · Marcos Bolados

50 · Felipe Raipán

7 · Francisco Marchant

29 · Vozinha

21 · Erick Wiemberg

54 · Gedeón Díaz

42 · Cristian Diaz

Our number · colo colo winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

40% The market42%

Us40%

~~Market~~42%

We make Colo Colo a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · colo colo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coquimbo Unido win	36%	30%	+6
Draw	24%	27%	−4
Colo Colo win	40%	42%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	46%	51%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	31%	−6
Coquimbo Unido or draw	60%	58%	+2
Coquimbo Unido clean sheet	27%	–	–
Colo Colo clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.6 12.0 6.9 3.0 1 11.2 11.1 8.2 3.6 2 5.9 7.6 5.0 2.2 3 2.4 3.1 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coquimbo Unido down, Colo Colo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,418 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coquimbo Unido at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Colo Colo away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Coquimbo Unido, 1.31 for Colo Colo. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~COL 3–1 COQ · COQ 1–0 COL · COL 2–0 COQ · COL 2–0 COQ

Form · last six in Primera División

COQUIMBO UNIDO

DLWLLL1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 0–1

COLO COLO

WDWWDD2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	23	+26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	+16	42
4	Palestino	23	+3	36
5	Huachipato	24	−5	34
6	Deportes Limache	23	+8	33
7	Everton de Vina	23	+8	33
8	Nublense	23	−3	32
9	Concepción	23	−1	31
10	D. La Serena	23	−4	30
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	−1	29
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Union La Calera	23	−12	23
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Cobresal	24	−15	22