Concepción v Union La Calera prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:00

Concepción 1–1 Union La Calera CONCEPCIÓN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Concepción win~~49%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.892

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.798

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Concepción win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Concepción 49% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
1′KICK-OFF Concepción v Union La Calera
10′🟨 YELLOW · 11' juan salomoni · Union La Calera
21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Cristian Riquelme · Concepción
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Mario Sandoval · Concepción
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Daniel Gutiérrez · Union La Calera
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Union La Calera · On: Maximiliano Fernández · Off: Martín Hiriart Espinoza
45′SECOND HALF Concepción 0–0 Union La Calera
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Concepción 1–0 Union La Calera
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Concepción 1–0 Union La Calera · Ethan Espinoza
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Concepción · On: Diego Acosta · Off: Jorge Henríquez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Concepción · On: Misael Dávila · Off: Cristian Riquelme
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Union La Calera · On: Bayron Oyarzo · Off: Joan Cruz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Union La Calera · On: Matías Campos López · Off: Brian Nicolás Ferreyra
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Rodrigo Perez Casada · Union La Calera
79′PENALTY · 79' Concepción
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Union La Calera · On: Joaquín Soto · Off: Rodrigo Perez Casada
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Concepción · On: Fernando Martinez · Off: Mario Sandoval
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Union La Calera · On: Yerko Leiva · Off: Camilo Moya
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Concepción · On: Matías Cavalleri · Off: Ethan Espinoza
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Concepción · On: Carlos Escobar · Off: Joaquín Larrivey
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Concepción 1–1 Union La Calera · Ethan Espinoza
96′⚽ GOAL · 97' Concepción 1–1 Union La Calera · Christopher Díaz
FTFULL TIME Concepción 1–1 Union La Calera
FTConcepción 1–1 Union La Calera · Concepción win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Concepción win49%

Draw24%

Union La Calera win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 21:30

VenueEstadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion

RefereeHector Jona

Line-ups

Concepción

4-1-4-1

Union La Calera

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Concepción

Union La Calera

28Days since last match27

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Concepción	23	−1	31
14	Union La Calera	23	−12	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Concepción

4-1-4-1

25 N. Araya

4 A. Cáceres

21 N. Rodríguez

37 F. Grillo

29 D. Varas

18 Y. Rodríguez

30 E. Espinoza

16 M. Sandoval

20 J. Henríquez

23 C. Riquelme

32 J. Larrivey

Coach · Fernando Díaz

Substitutes

22 · M. Dávila

19 · A. Jara

40 · Franco Caceres

12 · N. Veloso

8 · F. Martínez

9 · C. Escobar

27 · D. Acosta

3 · D. Carrasco

24 · M. Cavalleri

7 · F. Romero

Union La Calera

4-2-3-1

1 N. Avellaneda

25 C. Díaz

15 J. Salomoni

27 D. Gutiérrez

4 C. Gutiérrez

23 R. Pérez

5 C. Moya

20 J. Cruz

11 S. Sáez

17 M. Hiriart

32 B. Ferreyra

Coach · J. Armijo

Substitutes

30 · Maximiliano Fernandez

12 · N. Espinoza

19 · M. Campos

21 · Valentino Torrente

6 · V. Lavin

8 · Y. Leiva

7 · B. Oyarzo

3 · N. Palma

29 · J. Soto

Our number · concepción winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

49% The market47%

Us49%

~~Market~~47%

We make Concepción a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · concepción win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Concepción win	49%	47%	+3
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Union La Calera win	26%	25%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	44%	−2
Both teams to score	44%	48%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	23%	−2
Concepción or draw	74%	75%	−1
Concepción clean sheet	40%	–	–
Union La Calera clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 8.3 10.5 4.2 1 15.1 11.0 5.8 2 9.6 8.7 4.1 3 4.5 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Concepción down, Union La Calera across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,418 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 186 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Concepción at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Union La Calera away: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Concepción, 0.93 for Union La Calera. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–0 CON

Form · last six in Primera División

CONCEPCIÓN

WWDWLD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

UNION LA CALERA

LLDLLW1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	23	+26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	+16	42
4	Palestino	23	+3	36
5	Huachipato	24	−5	34
6	Deportes Limache	23	+8	33
7	Everton de Vina	23	+8	33
8	Nublense	23	−3	32
9	Concepción	23	−1	31
10	D. La Serena	23	−4	30
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	−1	29
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Union La Calera	23	−12	23
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Cobresal	24	−15	22