Colo Colo v Universidad de Concepcion prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Colo ColoDrawUniversidad de Concepcion

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Colo Colo 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colo Colo are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colo Colo 71%, draw 16%, Universidad de Concepcion 13%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Colo Colo v Universidad de ConcepcionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Colo Colo win71%

Draw16%

Universidad de Concepcion win13%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueEstadio Monumental David Arellano

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colo Colo

Universidad de Concepcion

19Days since last match20

Last match: 11 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colo colo winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Colo Colo a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colo Colo v Universidad de Concepcion~~2.21 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 16 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 54 v 23~~1 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colo Colo win	71%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Universidad de Concepcion win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Colo Colo or draw	87%	–	–
Colo Colo clean sheet	47%	–	–
Universidad de Concepcion clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.4%

0123450 4.4 4.9 1 12.2 7.7 3.3 2 12.4 9.4 3.6 3 9.1 6.9 2.6 4 5.1 3.8 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Colo Colo down, Universidad de Concepcion across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,423 Primera División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colo Colo at home: 3.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Universidad de Concepcion away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.21 goals for Colo Colo, 0.76 for Universidad de Concepcion. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–2 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 16 Aug

COLO COLO

DWWDDL2–2 · 2–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–5

UNIVERSIDAD DE CONCEPCION

LWLLLD1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	D. La Serena	25	−3	33
8	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
9	Concepción	25	−3	32
10	Huachipato	24	−6	32
11	Nublense	24	−9	32
12	A. Italiano	24	−5	29
13	O'Higgins	25	−10	28
14	Cobresal	25	−10	26
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18