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Cobresal v Universidad de Concepcion

Cobresal

1–1Full time

Universidad de Concepcion

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio El Cobre

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Cobresal 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion COBRESAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cobresal win~~55%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.003

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cobresal win at 55%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Cobresal 55% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–23–23
2′KICK-OFF Cobresal v Universidad de Concepcion
9′Little has changed for our model: Cobresal 55% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Juan Fuentes · Cobresal
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Cesar Yanis · Cobresal
45′HALF-TIME Cobresal 0–0 Universidad de Concepcion
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cobresal · On: Franco Frias · Off: Martín Espinoza
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Universidad de Concepcion · On: Iam Gonzalez · Off: T. Roco
46′SECOND HALF Cobresal 0–0 Universidad de Concepcion
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Cobresal · On: Alejandro Santander · Off: Matias Alejandro Olguín Lucero
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Rodrigo Francisco Sandoval Muñoz · Cobresal
64′🟥 RED CARD · 62' Rodrigo Francisco Sandoval Muñoz · Cobresal
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cobresal · On: Aaron Astudillo · Off: Leroy Janpol Morales Napa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Universidad de Concepcion · On: Luis Rojas · Off: Facundo Mater
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Universidad de Concepcion · On: Rogelio Funes · Off: Cecilio Waterman
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Universidad de Concepcion · On: Antonio Diaz · Off: Yerco Oyanedel
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Bryan Ogaz · Universidad de Concepcion
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Cobresal 0–1 Universidad de Concepcion
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Cobresal 0–1 Universidad de Concepcion · Luis Rojas
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Luis Rojas · Universidad de Concepcion
90′🟥 RED CARD · 93' C. Muñoz · Universidad de Concepcion
90′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Universidad de Concepcion · On: diego sabando · Off: Harol Salgado
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Cobresal 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion · Luis Rojas
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Cobresal 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion · Guillermo Pacheco
FTFULL TIME Cobresal 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion
FTCobresal 1–1 Universidad de Concepcion · Cobresal win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cobresal win55%

Draw20%

Universidad de Concepcion win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio El Cobre

Referee · Gaston Philippe

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cobresal

4-2-3-1

36 M. Olguin

23 G. Pacheco

20 J. Tiznado

4 R. Sandoval

15 A. Castillo

17 J. Fuentes

38 F. Villagrán

7 C. Yanis

39 L. Morales

11 J. Brea

37 Martin Espinoza

Coach · G. Huerta

Substitutes

22 · A. Astudillo

12 · J. Santander

6 · E. Valencia

13 · Benjamin Valenzuela

3 · Benjamin Villarroel

14 · R. Huerta

32 · F. Frías

43 · V. Campos

8 · S. Pino

Universidad de Concepcion

4-3-3

1 J. Broun

32 B. Saez

17 M. González

3 M. Barbieri

15 Y. Oyanedel

8 F. Mater

16 B. Ogaz

10 J. Fuentealba

25 H. Salgado

18 C. Waterman

26 T. Roco

Coach · Cristián Muñoz

Substitutes

21 · J. Espejo

22 · R. Funes Mori

7 · I. González

34 · F. Herrera

2 · Páez Páez

20 · L. Rojas

29 · D. Sabando

11 · A. Díaz

13 · J. Sanhueza

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cobresal

4-2-3-1

36 M. Olguin

23 G. Pacheco

20 J. Tiznado

4 R. Sandoval

15 A. Castillo

17 J. Fuentes

38 F. Villagrán

7 C. Yanis

39 L. Morales

11 J. Brea

37 Martin Espinoza

Coach · G. Huerta

Substitutes

22 · A. Astudillo

12 · J. Santander

6 · E. Valencia

13 · Benjamin Valenzuela

3 · Benjamin Villarroel

14 · R. Huerta

32 · F. Frías

43 · V. Campos

8 · S. Pino

Universidad de Concepcion

4-3-3

1 J. Broun

32 B. Saez

17 M. González

3 M. Barbieri

15 Y. Oyanedel

8 F. Mater

16 B. Ogaz

10 J. Fuentealba

25 H. Salgado

18 C. Waterman

26 T. Roco

Coach · Cristián Muñoz

Substitutes

21 · J. Espejo

22 · R. Funes Mori

7 · I. González

34 · F. Herrera

2 · Páez Páez

20 · L. Rojas

29 · D. Sabando

11 · A. Díaz

13 · J. Sanhueza

Our number · cobresal winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

55% The market46%

Us55%

~~Market~~46%

We make Cobresal a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cobresal win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cobresal win	55%	46%	+9
Draw	20%	26%	−6
Universidad de Concepcion win	24%	28%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Cobresal or draw	76%	72%	+3
Cobresal clean sheet	33%	–	–
Universidad de Concepcion clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 4.0 7.2 3.3 1 11.0 9.3 5.9 2.2 2 8.8 9.7 5.4 2.0 3 5.4 5.9 3.3 4 2.5 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cobresal down, Universidad de Concepcion across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,416 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cobresal at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Universidad de Concepcion away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Cobresal, 1.12 for Universidad de Concepcion. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–0 COB

Form · last six in Primera División

COBRESAL

LLDWLW0–2 · 0–2 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 3–2

UNIVERSIDAD DE CONCEPCION

LLWLLL0–2 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	23	+26	54
2	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
3	Universidad de Chile	23	+16	42
4	Palestino	23	+3	36
5	Deportes Limache	23	+8	33
6	Everton de Vina	23	+8	33
7	Nublense	23	−3	32
8	Concepción	23	−1	31
9	Huachipato	23	−7	31
10	D. La Serena	23	−4	30
11	Coquimbo Unido	23	−1	29
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28
13	O'Higgins	23	−8	27
14	Union La Calera	23	−12	23
15	Universidad de Concepcion	23	−22	22
16	Cobresal	23	−15	21