A. Italiano v Huachipato prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 02:30

A. Italiano 1–1 Huachipato A. ITALIANO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said A. Italiano win~~49%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.936

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.814

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said A. Italiano win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: A. Italiano 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 49–22–29
1′KICK-OFF A. Italiano v Huachipato
25′Huachipato ahead on 25′ through Maximiliano Rodríguez. 0–1. 0–1 · 19–25–56
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' A. Italiano 0–1 Huachipato · Maximiliano Rodríguez
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' A. Italiano win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Huachipato win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was A. Italiano win 44%)
26′We said A. Italiano at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 18–26–57
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' A. Italiano 1–1 Huachipato
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' A. Italiano win: 49% at kick-off, 42% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' A. Italiano win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Huachipato win 58%)
35′Felipe Salomoni scores for A. Italiano on 34′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 42–32–26
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Nicolas Vargas · Huachipato
45′HALF-TIME A. Italiano 1–1 Huachipato
46′SECOND HALF A. Italiano 1–1 Huachipato
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Huachipato · On: Carlos Herrera · Off: Kevin Altez
48′We said A. Italiano at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–39–24
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was A. Italiano win 38%)
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Diego Coelho · A. Italiano
55′We said A. Italiano at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–22
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Enzo Ferrario · A. Italiano
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Huachipato · On: Lionel Altamirano · Off: Ezequiel Martin Canete
64′We said A. Italiano at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–19
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' A. Italiano win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Marco Collao Ramos · A. Italiano
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' A. Italiano · On: Michael Fuentes · Off: Giovani Chiaverano Meroi
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' A. Italiano · On: Paolo Guajardo · Off: Martín Vicente Jiménez Salinas
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' A. Italiano · On: Federico Mateos · Off: Marco Collao Ramos
71′We said A. Italiano at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Huachipato · On: Cris Martinez · Off: H. Antiñirre
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' A. Italiano · On: Mario Eduardo Sandoval · Off: César Pinares
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' A. Italiano win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
81′We said A. Italiano at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–9
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' A. Italiano · On: Ariel Uribe · Off: Diego Coelho
85′We said A. Italiano at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' A. Italiano win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
91′We said A. Italiano at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Mario Eduardo Sandoval · A. Italiano
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Huachipato · On: Claudio Torres · Off: Maximiliano Rodríguez
FTFULL TIME A. Italiano 1–1 Huachipato
FTA. Italiano 1–1 Huachipato · A. Italiano win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A. Italiano are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: A. Italiano 49%, draw 22%, Huachipato 29%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on A. Italiano v HuachipatoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

A. Italiano win49%

Draw22%

Huachipato win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueEstadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

RefereeRodrigo Carvajal Molina

Line-ups

A. Italiano

4-4-2

Huachipato

4-1-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

A. Italiano

Huachipato

28Days since last match13

Last match: 26 Sept · Copa Chile

Last match: 10 Oct · the Chilean Primera División

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Huachipato	23	−6	31
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

A. Italiano

4-4-2

1 T. Ahumada

35 R. Rebolledo

29 M. Ortiz

13 E. Ferrario

3 F. Salomoni

20 M. Jiménez

19 C. Pinares

8 M. Collao

21 G. Chiaverano

9 D. Coelho

11 F. Troyansky

Coach · P. Graff

Substitutes

2 · V. Zenteno

6 · M. Sandoval

16 · O. Rojas

24 · N. Orellana

28 · F. Mateos

7 · P. Guajardo

25 · P. Garrido

27 · M. Fuentes

30 · A. Uribe

Huachipato

4-1-3-2

1 S. Mella

20 C. Toro

8 P. Vargas

5 R. Caroca

26 H. Antiñirre

10 E. Cañete

7 M. Briceño

24 M. León

30 K. Altez

19 S. Núñez

15 M. Rodríguez

Coach · J. García

Substitutes

12 · C. Bravo

16 · L. Arriagada

9 · L. Altamirano

22 · Javier Nicolás Cárcamo Cifuentes

11 · J. Figueroa

21 · C. Herrera

23 · C. Martínez

38 · Sebastian Melgarejo

29 · C. Torres

Our number · a. italiano winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market46%

Us49%

~~Market~~46%

We make A. Italiano a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · A. Italiano v Huachipato~~1.63 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 8 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 28 v 31~~12 v 10

~~The market · A. Italiano win~~46% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · A. Italiano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
A. Italiano win	49%	46%	+3
Draw	22%	27%	−5
Huachipato win	29%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	54%	55%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	30%	+1
A. Italiano or draw	71%	73%	−2
A. Italiano clean sheet	31%	–	–
Huachipato clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 5.0 8.4 4.2 1 11.3 10.2 6.7 2.6 2 8.1 9.3 5.4 2.1 3 4.4 5.1 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+A. Italiano down, Huachipato across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,420 Primera División matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 188 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

A. Italiano at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Huachipato away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for A. Italiano, 1.17 for Huachipato. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 23:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~HUA 3–2 AIT · HUA 2–1 AIT · HUA 4–2 AIT · AIT 1–0 HUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 8 Aug

A. ITALIANO

DDDLWW2–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–0

HUACHIPATO

LLLDWW1–4 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Colo Colo	24	+23	54
2	Universidad de Chile	24	+22	45
3	U. Catolica	23	+17	42
4	Everton de Vina	24	+13	39
5	Palestino	24	+3	37
6	Deportes Limache	24	+8	34
7	Coquimbo Unido	23	+3	32
8	Concepción	24	−1	32
9	Nublense	24	−9	32
10	Huachipato	23	−6	31
11	D. La Serena	24	−5	30
12	A. Italiano	23	−5	28
13	O'Higgins	24	−10	27
14	Cobresal	24	−10	25
15	Universidad de Concepcion	24	−22	23
16	Union La Calera	24	−21	18