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Universitario de Vinto v San Antonio Bulo Bulo

Universitario de Vinto

2–1Full time

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

Primera División · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Hipolito Lazarte

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:01

Universitario de Vinto 2–1 San Antonio Bulo Bulo UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Universitario de Vinto win~~46%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.443

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Universitario de Vinto win at 46%.
2′KICK-OFF Universitario de Vinto v San Antonio Bulo Bulo
4′🟨 YELLOW · 1' Felipe Pasadore · Universitario de Vinto
5′Little has changed for our model: Universitario de Vinto 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
18′We said Universitario de Vinto at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–11
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Universitario de Vinto 1–0 San Antonio Bulo Bulo
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Universitario de Vinto win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
20′18′: H. Rodríguez on the scoresheet for Universitario de Vinto, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
39′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Universitario de Vinto · On: Guilder Cuellar · Off: Felipe Pasadore
39′SUBSTITUTION · 38' San Antonio Bulo Bulo · On: A. Medina · Off: Sergio Favian·Villamil
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' M. Gómez · Universitario de Vinto
43′We said Universitario de Vinto at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Universitario de Vinto 2–0 San Antonio Bulo Bulo
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Universitario de Vinto win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
45′Universitario de Vinto ahead on 44′ through Oswaldo Blanco. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′SECOND HALF Universitario de Vinto 2–0 San Antonio Bulo Bulo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' San Antonio Bulo Bulo · On: Marcelo De Lima Castro · Off: Ronald Steven Bustos Torrelio
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' San Antonio Bulo Bulo · On: Ramiro Ballivián · Off: R. Menacho
46′We said Universitario de Vinto at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–7
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Universitario de Vinto 2–1 San Antonio Bulo Bulo
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Universitario de Vinto win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' C. Romero · San Antonio Bulo Bulo
48′Marcelo De Lima Castro scores for San Antonio Bulo Bulo on 47′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–19–6
48′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 75–19–6
48′GOAL DISALLOWED · 48' San Antonio Bulo Bulo
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Universitario de Vinto win: 46% at kick-off, 94% now
52′🟥 RED CARD · 52' San Antonio Bulo Bulo
54′San Antonio Bulo Bulo are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–0 · 93–6–1
54′We said Universitario de Vinto at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
54′HALF-TIME Universitario de Vinto 2–0 San Antonio Bulo Bulo
59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' San Antonio Bulo Bulo · On: João Pedro De Sousa Fonseca Santana · Off: C. Preciado
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Universitario de Vinto win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Universitario de Vinto · On: Richard Dorrego · Off: Oswaldo Blanco
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Universitario de Vinto · On: Diego Jahdiel Saavedra Rocha · Off: Rodrigo Andrés Llano Montes
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Esdras Mendoza dos Santos · Universitario de Vinto
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' San Antonio Bulo Bulo · On: Saulo Guerra · Off: Cristhian Machado
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Universitario de Vinto · On: Lucas Cabrera Suarez · Off: Julio Alberth Lazarte Laura
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Universitario de Vinto · On: A. Jara · Off: H. Rodríguez
77′We said Universitario de Vinto at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 2–1 · 87–12–1
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Universitario de Vinto 2–1 San Antonio Bulo Bulo
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Universitario de Vinto win: 46% at kick-off, 87% now
79′A. Medina scores for San Antonio Bulo Bulo on 78′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 88–11–1
80′A. Medina scores for San Antonio Bulo Bulo on 77′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Universitario de Vinto win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Richard Dorrego · Universitario de Vinto
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Saulo Guerra · San Antonio Bulo Bulo
97′🟥 RED CARD · 90+7' Universitario de Vinto
98′Universitario de Vinto have ten men and San Antonio Bulo Bulo ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Universitario de Vinto 2–1 San Antonio Bulo Bulo
FTUniversitario de Vinto 2–1 San Antonio Bulo Bulo · Universitario de Vinto win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Universitario de Vinto are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Universitario de Vinto 46%, draw 25%, San Antonio Bulo Bulo 29%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Universitario de Vinto v San Antonio Bulo BuloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Universitario de Vinto win46%

Draw25%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 22:15

RoundApertura · matchday 22

VenueEstadio Hipolito Lazarte

Line-ups

Universitario de Vinto

4-2-3-1

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Universitario de Vinto

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 9 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
15	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Universitario de Vinto

4-2-3-1

12 J. Careaga

76 Esdras Mendoza

50 D. Vargas

28 Jose Pinto

70 J. Lazarte

24 H. Rodriguez

6 M. Gomez

79 O. Blanco

17 D. Torrico

9 R. Llano

32 F. Pasadore

Coach · Adrian Barral

Substitutes

1 · B. Poveda

34 · A. Jara

2 · G. Visalla

21 · G. Cuellar

7 · H. Dorrego

27 · B. Calderon

19 · J. Veizaga

26 · S. Mendoza

80 · F. Vasquez

90 · D. Saavedra

37 · L. Cabrera Suarez

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

5-4-1

1 L. Giossa

31 R. Bustos

26 C. Romero

15 C. Machado

14 L. Yanarico

44 C. Ricaldez

10 A. Terrazas

45 S. Villamil

32 A. Campos

11 C. Preciado

18 R. Menacho

Coach · Bolivia

Substitutes

12 · L. Guzman

21 · R. Ballivian

25 · H. Sanchez

30 · J. Villamil

33 · J. Magallanes

17 · S. Guerra

19 · M. De Lima

6 · Mercado Diego

40 · Joao Pedro

8 · K. Merida

20 · R. Vargas

13 · A. Medina

Our number · universitario de vinto winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market54%

Us46%

~~Market~~54%

We make Universitario de Vinto a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Universitario de Vinto v San Antonio Bulo Bulo~~1.64 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 18 v 21~~15 v 12

~~The market · Universitario de Vinto win~~54% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Universitario de Vinto win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universitario de Vinto win	46%	54%	−8
Draw	25%	25%	0
San Antonio Bulo Bulo win	29%	22%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	62%	−7
Both teams to score	58%	62%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	82%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	42%	−9
Universitario de Vinto or draw	71%	78%	−7
Universitario de Vinto clean sheet	29%	–	–
San Antonio Bulo Bulo clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.4 6.4 4.4 1 8.5 11.9 7.0 3.0 2 7.4 9.1 5.7 2.4 3 4.1 5.0 3.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universitario de Vinto down, San Antonio Bulo Bulo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,582 Primera División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universitario de Vinto at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). San Antonio Bulo Bulo away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Universitario de Vinto, 1.25 for San Antonio Bulo Bulo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–2 UNI · SAN 2–0 UNI · UNI 5–2 SAN · SAN 2–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO

LWLWDL3–4 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–3

SAN ANTONIO BULO BULO

LLLLWD0–4 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	21	+36	48
2	Bolívar	21	+33	48
3	The Strongest	21	+16	42
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
6	Aurora	21	+4	31
7	Guabirá	21	−10	29
8	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28
9	Blooming	21	+7	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	21	−10	25
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	22	−16	20
14	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
15	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17