Home › Football › Primera División › Universitario de Vinto v Real Oruro

Universitario de Vinto v Real Oruro

Universitario de Vinto

1–3Full time

Real Oruro

Primera División · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Hipolito Lazarte

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Universitario de Vinto 1–3 Real Oruro UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Universitario de Vinto win~~50%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.827

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.230

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Universitario de Vinto win at 50%.
1′We said Universitario de Vinto at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–1 · 30–21–49
2′A. Bravo scores for Real Oruro on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 30–21–49
21′4′ and it is 0–2: A. Bravo on the scoresheet for Real Oruro. 0–2 · 10–14–75
41′We said Universitario de Vinto at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–2 · 6–12–82
45′SECOND HALF Universitario de Vinto 0–2 Real Oruro
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Real Oruro win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Universitario de Vinto win 30%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Universitario de Vinto win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
52′PENALTY MISSED · 52' F. Gatti · Real Oruro
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Universitario de Vinto · On: Rodrigo Andrés Llano Montes · Off: Guilder Cuellar Corrected
55′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Universitario de Vinto · On: Oswaldo Blanco · Off: H. Rodríguez Corrected
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Didi Torrico · Universitario de Vinto
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Real Oruro · On: Juan Montenegro · Off: Jhámil Rodrigo Ari Cruz Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Real Oruro · On: D. Castellón · Off: E. Rivera
64′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Juan Montenegro · Real Oruro
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Felipe Pasadore · Universitario de Vinto
68′🟨 YELLOW · 69' M. Gómez · Universitario de Vinto
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Oruro · On: Juan Pablo Gómez Perez · Off: Hernán Tifner Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Real Oruro · On: Yerco·Vallejos · Off: A. Bravo Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Universitario de Vinto 0–3 Real Oruro · A. Bravo
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Universitario de Vinto 0–3 Real Oruro · Yerco·Vallejos
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Universitario de Vinto · On: Andrés Veizaga · Off: Felipe Pasadore Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Universitario de Vinto · On: Diego Jahdiel Saavedra Rocha · Off: Richard Dorrego Corrected
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Universitario de Vinto 1–3 Real Oruro · Yerco·Vallejos
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Universitario de Vinto 1–3 Real Oruro · Oswaldo Blanco
FTFULL TIME Universitario de Vinto 1–3 Real Oruro
FTUniversitario de Vinto 1–3 Real Oruro · Universitario de Vinto win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Universitario de Vinto win50%

Draw22%

Real Oruro win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Estadio Hipolito Lazarte

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Universitario de Vinto

4-2-3-1

12 J. Careaga

76 Esdras Mendoza

27 B. Calderon

28 Jose Pinto

70 J. Lazarte

6 M. Gomez

24 H. Rodriguez

21 G. Cuellar

22 J. Calicho

7 H. Dorrego

32 F. Pasadore

Coach · Adrian Barral

Substitutes

77 · P. Garcia

34 · A. Jara

66 · A. Cuestas

17 · D. Torrico

2 · G. Visalla

19 · J. Veizaga

50 · D. Vargas

79 · O. Blanco

9 · R. Llano

26 · S. Mendoza

90 · D. Saavedra

37 · L. Cabrera Suarez

Real Oruro

4-4-2

13 I. Pena

18 Y. Calle

5 L. Corulo

22 E. Rivera

31 R. J. Balceras Cuellar

33 F. Gatti

26 H. Tifner

6 A. Rivera

30 J. Ari Cruz

9 D. Pinto

65 A. F. Bravo Adan

Coach · Marcelo Straccia

Substitutes

66 · J. Aztete

15 · D. Castellon

32 · R. Mendez

42 · R. Ardaya

40 · F. Vargas

77 · C. Siles

70 · J. P. Gomez

50 · J. Montenegro

10 · A. Quinonez

19 · Y. Vallejos

55 · S. Garcia

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Universitario de Vinto

4-2-3-1

12 J. Careaga

76 Esdras Mendoza

27 B. Calderon

28 Jose Pinto

70 J. Lazarte

6 M. Gomez

24 H. Rodriguez

21 G. Cuellar

22 J. Calicho

7 H. Dorrego

32 F. Pasadore

Coach · Adrian Barral

Substitutes

77 · P. Garcia

34 · A. Jara

66 · A. Cuestas

17 · D. Torrico

2 · G. Visalla

19 · J. Veizaga

50 · D. Vargas

79 · O. Blanco

9 · R. Llano

26 · S. Mendoza

90 · D. Saavedra

37 · L. Cabrera Suarez

Real Oruro

4-4-2

13 I. Pena

18 Y. Calle

5 L. Corulo

22 E. Rivera

31 R. J. Balceras Cuellar

33 F. Gatti

26 H. Tifner

6 A. Rivera

30 J. Ari Cruz

9 D. Pinto

65 A. F. Bravo Adan

Coach · Marcelo Straccia

Substitutes

66 · J. Aztete

15 · D. Castellon

32 · R. Mendez

42 · R. Ardaya

40 · F. Vargas

77 · C. Siles

70 · J. P. Gomez

50 · J. Montenegro

10 · A. Quinonez

19 · Y. Vallejos

55 · S. Garcia

Our number · universitario de vinto winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

50% The market68%

Us50%

~~Market~~68%

We make Universitario de Vinto a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · universitario de vinto win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Universitario de Vinto win	50%	68%	−17
Draw	22%	18%	+4
Real Oruro win	28%	14%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	69%	69%	0
Both teams to score	68%	61%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	87%	85%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	48%	49%	−1
Universitario de Vinto or draw	72%	86%	−14
Universitario de Vinto clean sheet	23%	–	–
Real Oruro clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.6 3.7 3.2 1 5.3 9.3 6.4 3.2 2 6.0 8.8 6.6 3.3 3 4.2 6.1 4.5 2.3 4 2.2 3.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Universitario de Vinto down, Real Oruro across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,574 Primera División matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 161 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Universitario de Vinto at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real Oruro away: 1.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Universitario de Vinto, 1.50 for Real Oruro. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~REA 4–1 UNI · UNI 2–2 REA · REA 2–0 UNI

Form · last six in Primera División

UNIVERSITARIO DE VINTO

LLWLWD0–1 · 3–4 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1

REAL ORURO

LLDWLL2–3 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	20	+34	45
2	Bolívar	20	+32	45
3	The Strongest	20	+17	42
4	Real Potosí	20	+13	32
5	Oriente Petrolero	20	+9	30
6	Aurora	20	+4	30
7	Guabirá	20	−7	29
8	Blooming	20	+8	27
9	Nacional Potosí	20	+2	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	−8	25
11	Real Oruro	20	−18	21
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	20	−14	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	20	−13	18
15	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	−16	14