The Strongest v Always Ready prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:00

The Strongest 2–1 Always Ready THE STRONGEST WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said The Strongest win~~43%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.499

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.709

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said The Strongest win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF The Strongest v Always Ready
2′Much as we predicted: The Strongest was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–33
14′We published The Strongest at 43%. Our model now makes it 68%. 1–0 · 68–18–14
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' The Strongest 1–0 Always Ready
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' The Strongest win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
15′GOAL DISALLOWED · 15' The Strongest
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' The Strongest win: 43% at kick-off, 41% now
16′The Strongest find the net on 14′. 0–0 · 41–27–32
27′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Edisson Restrepo · Always Ready
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Santiago Arce · The Strongest
45′SECOND HALF The Strongest 0–0 Always Ready
47′HALF-TIME The Strongest 0–0 Always Ready
50′We published The Strongest at 43%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' The Strongest 1–0 Always Ready
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' The Strongest win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
52′52′: Adrián Estacio on the scoresheet for The Strongest, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' The Strongest win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
53′51′: Adrián Estacio on the scoresheet for The Strongest, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
55′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Always Ready · On: Juan Godoy · Off: Joel Amoroso
59′We published The Strongest at 43%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' The Strongest 2–0 Always Ready
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' The Strongest win: 43% at kick-off, 94% now
60′We published The Strongest at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
60′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 2–0 · 95–5–1
62′The Strongest ahead on 60′ through Carlos Ventura. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Pablo Pedraza · The Strongest
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' The Strongest · On: Roy Ribertt · Off: Dilan Saavedra
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' The Strongest · On: Widen Saucedo · Off: Gabriel Sotomayor
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Always Ready · On: galindo nicolas · Off: Rai Pablo Lima Martínez
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Always Ready · On: Dario Torrico · Off: Carlos Medina
77′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Adrian Jusino · The Strongest
78′We published The Strongest at 43%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–13–1
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' The Strongest 2–1 Always Ready
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' The Strongest win: 43% at kick-off, 86% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' The Strongest · On: Victor Cuellar · Off: Adrián Estacio
80′Enrique Triverio scores for Always Ready on 78′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–1
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Always Ready · On: Carmelo Algarañaz · Off: J.Uzeda
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' The Strongest · On: Luiz Henrique Pachu Lira · Off: Carlos Ventura
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Jovani Welch · The Strongest
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' The Strongest win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' A. Quiroga · Always Ready
FTFULL TIME The Strongest 2–1 Always Ready
FTThe Strongest 2–1 Always Ready · The Strongest win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

The Strongest are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: The Strongest 43%, draw 24%, Always Ready 33%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on The Strongest v Always ReadyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

The Strongest win43%

Draw24%

Always Ready win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:15

RoundApertura · matchday 22

VenueEstadio Hernando Siles

Line-ups

The Strongest

3-4-3

Always Ready

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

The Strongest

Always Ready

7Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

The Strongest

3-4-3

1 L. Banegas

15 S. Arce

5 A. Jusino

3 P. Pedraza

27 Saavedra

6 J. Welch

30 J. Arrascaita

21 F. Quaglio

17 A. Estacio

26 G. Sotomayor

9 C. Ventura

Coach · Carlos Paz Garcia Juan

Substitutes

12 · D. Valdivia

22 · W. Saucedo

24 · K. Adin Chacon Arrascayta

10 · R. Castro

16 · V. Cuellar

34 · S. Melgar

38 · J. Lazaro

14 · D. Lom

99 · Pachu

36 · R. Ribera

40 · L. Cueto

42 · P. T. Chavarria

Always Ready

4-3-3

1 A. Baroja

18 C. Rodriguez

22 R. Gomez Miranda

26 E. Restrepo

14 C. D. Medina Rodriguez

11 J. Uzeda

5 A. Quiroga

6 R. Lima

7 J. Amoroso

9 E. Triverio

10 J. Maraude

Coach · Pablo Godoy

Substitutes

12 · S. Mustafa

21 · A. Rambal

4 · N. Villarroel

36 · K. Estrada

19 · D. Torrico

2 · J. Herrera

23 · J. Godoy

29 · Ramon

28 · H. Galvis

24 · C. Algaranaz

33 · C. M. Collazo Martinez

Our number · the strongest winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 03:56 · locked at kick-off

43% The market32%

Us43%

~~Market~~32%

We make The Strongest a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · The Strongest v Always Ready~~1.69 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 42 v 48~~3 v 1

~~The market · The Strongest win~~32% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · The Strongest win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
The Strongest win	43%	32%	+11
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Always Ready win	33%	41%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	61%	59%	+2
Both teams to score	62%	62%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	39%	0
The Strongest or draw	67%	59%	+8
The Strongest clean sheet	24%	–	–
Always Ready clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.0 5.8 4.6 2.3 1 6.7 10.9 7.6 3.7 2 6.1 8.7 6.3 3.1 3 3.5 4.9 3.6 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+The Strongest down, Always Ready across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,586 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.7% of games this season, across 173 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

The Strongest at home: 2.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Always Ready away: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for The Strongest, 1.47 for Always Ready. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALW 0–1 THE · THE 2–3 ALW · THE 2–1 ALW · ALW 7–2 THE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 21 Aug

THE STRONGEST

WWWWWL4–3 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 5–0 · 2–1 · 0–1

ALWAYS READY

DDWWWW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 6–0 · 4–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	21	+36	48
2	Bolívar	21	+33	48
3	The Strongest	21	+16	42
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	21	−10	29
8	Blooming	22	+7	28
9	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28
10	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26
12	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	−20	21
14	ABB	22	−16	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17