Real Tomayapo v Gualberto Villarroel SJ prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 03:35

Real Tomayapo 1–0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ REAL TOMAYAPO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Tomayapo win~~44%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.381

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Tomayapo win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Tomayapo 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Real Tomayapo v Gualberto Villarroel SJ
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' José Vargas · Gualberto Villarroel SJ
42′Real Tomayapo have had 11 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 36–38–26
45′Real Tomayapo have had 13 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 35–39–26
45′Real Tomayapo ahead on 45′ through D. Robles. 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–6
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–6
45′SECOND HALF Real Tomayapo 1–0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Real Tomayapo · On: Lisandro Sebastián Montenegro · Off: Alexis Ribera
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Real Tomayapo win 35%)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Matheus Moresche · Gualberto Villarroel SJ
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Artur William Costa · Gualberto Villarroel SJ
48′We said Real Tomayapo at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Real Tomayapo win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Real Tomayapo 1–0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Real Tomayapo win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Real Tomayapo win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 19%)
50′We said Real Tomayapo at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–6
50′HALF-TIME Real Tomayapo 1–0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ
53′SUBSTITUTION · 52' Gualberto Villarroel SJ · On: Luis Zeballos · Off: Matheus Moresche
64′We said Real Tomayapo at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Luis·Cardenas · Real Tomayapo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Tomayapo · On: Bernabé David Aguirre Aramayo · Off: Vladimir Antonio Gálvez Lazcano
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Real Tomayapo · On: Javier Guerra · Off: Ramiro Eguez
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Real Tomayapo · On: Ricardo Suárez Antelo · Off: Cristhian Arabe
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Gualberto Villarroel SJ · On: sebastian valdez · Off: Elmer José Quispe Frías
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Real Tomayapo win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
74′We said Real Tomayapo at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Real Tomayapo · On: Jorge Orozco · Off: Ruan·Costa de Freitas
81′We said Real Tomayapo at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Real Tomayapo win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
87′We said Real Tomayapo at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gualberto Villarroel SJ · On: Santiago Pinto Soliz · Off: G. Vaca
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Gualberto Villarroel SJ · On: Rodrigo Asur Orihuela Rivero · Off: Luis Raul Cruz Valverde
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Fernando Aguilar Dorado · Gualberto Villarroel SJ
FTFULL TIME Real Tomayapo 1–0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ
FTReal Tomayapo 1–0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ · Real Tomayapo win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Tomayapo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Tomayapo 44%, draw 27%, Gualberto Villarroel SJ 29%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Real Tomayapo v Gualberto Villarroel SJBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Tomayapo win44%

Draw27%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 22

VenueEstadio IV Centenario

Line-ups

Real Tomayapo

4-2-3-1

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Tomayapo

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

8Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera División (Bolivia)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	21	−13	17
16	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Tomayapo

4-2-3-1

1 L. Cardenas

19 Robson

24 D. Robles

17 M. Bejarano

14 V. Galvez

6 V. Melgar

8 J. Mamani

7 C. Arabe

12 J. Ribera

18 R. Eguez

27 Ruan Costa

Coach · Jorge Alfonso

Substitutes

32 · R. Suarez

55 · G. Barbieri

15 · J. Guerra

28 · D. Wayar

25 · R. Cuellar Orti

50 · Y. Alvarez

5 · L. S. Montenegro

9 · J. N. Orozco Quiroga

99 · A. Cervantes

11 · F. Nouet

36 · J. Chavez

70 · B. Aguirre

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

4-2-3-1

25 R. Rivas

17 E. Quispe

26 J. Lencinas

20 F. Aguilar

4 G. Vaca

2 J. Ramallo

38 L. Vargas

55 J. Goyeneche

11 Matheus Moresche

37 L. R. Cruz Valverde

9 R. Monteiro

Coach · Artur Costa

Substitutes

66 · D. Akologo

36 · G. Justiniano

29 · S. Galindo

8 · R. Orihuela

21 · S. Valdez

30 · L. Zeballos

18 · S. Pinto

Our number · real tomayapo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market50%

Us44%

~~Market~~50%

We make Real Tomayapo a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Tomayapo v Gualberto Villarroel SJ~~1.48 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 17~~16 v 15

~~The market · Real Tomayapo win~~50% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Tomayapo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Tomayapo win	44%	50%	−6
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Gualberto Villarroel SJ win	29%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	49%	59%	−10
Both teams to score	53%	61%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	28%	39%	−11
Real Tomayapo or draw	71%	75%	−4
Real Tomayapo clean sheet	31%	–	–
Gualberto Villarroel SJ clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.0 7.7 4.9 1 9.8 12.7 7.0 2.8 2 7.7 8.8 5.2 2.0 3 3.8 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Tomayapo down, Gualberto Villarroel SJ across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,582 Primera División matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 169 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Tomayapo at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Gualberto Villarroel SJ away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Real Tomayapo, 1.17 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 00:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~GUA 3–2 REA · REA 2–1 GUA · GUA 3–1 REA · GUA 5–0 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 22 Aug

REAL TOMAYAPO

DWLLLD1–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

GUALBERTO VILLARROEL SJ

DDLLLW2–2 · 3–3 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 2–4 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	21	+36	48
2	Bolívar	21	+33	48
3	The Strongest	21	+16	42
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
6	Aurora	21	+4	31
7	Guabirá	21	−10	29
8	Nacional Potosí	21	+2	28
9	Blooming	21	+7	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	21	−10	25
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	22	−16	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18
15	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	21	−13	17
16	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17