Real Potosí v The Strongest prediction · Primera División

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 22:30

Real Potosí 1–0 The Strongest REAL POTOSÍ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Potosí win~~42%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.509

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.584

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Potosí win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Potosí 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
45′Little has changed for our model: Real Potosí 42% before kick-off, 33% now. 0–0 · 33–41–25
63′The Strongest ahead on 61′ through Jaime Arrascaita. 0–0. 0–0 · 26–54–20
71′The Strongest ahead on 61′ through Jaime Arrascaita. 0–0. 0–0 · 20–63–16
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 26% now
81′⚽ GOAL · 82' Real Potosí 1–0 The Strongest · Hugo Rojas
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' The Strongest · On: Luiz Henrique Pachu Lira · Off: Carlos Ventura Corrected
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 26% now
83′Hugo Rojas scores for Real Potosí on 82′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 26% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Real Potosí win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Real Potosí win 20%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Real Potosí win 20%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Real Potosí win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Real Potosí win 20%)
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Real Potosí win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 20% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Real Potosí win 20%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Real Potosí win: 42% at kick-off, 93% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Real Potosí win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Real Potosí · On: Stiven Plaza · Off: Hugo Rojas Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Martin Chiatti · The Strongest
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' The Strongest · On: Widen Saucedo · Off: Adrian Jusino Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' The Strongest · On: Roy Ribertt · Off: Dilan Saavedra Corrected
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Stiven Plaza · Real Potosí
FTFULL TIME Real Potosí 1–0 The Strongest
FTReal Potosí 1–0 The Strongest · Real Potosí win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Real Potosí win42%

Draw29%

The Strongest win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 20:00

VenueEstadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Line-ups

Real Potosí

5-4-1

The Strongest

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Real Potosí

The Strongest

26Days since last match26

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	The Strongest	20	+17	42
5	Real Potosí	20	+13	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Real Potosí

5-4-1

1 C. Martinez

21 W. Fernandez

22 F. Supayabe

4 K. Villegas

44 S. Severiche

35 C. Vedia

77 J. Rojas

8 I. Cardenas

90 L. Gimenez

11 M. Gomez

18 J. Rivas

Coach · Jhon Garcia

Substitutes

25 · D. Sandy

10 · V. Castellon

3 · G. Anasgo

14 · E. Velasquez

41 · Igor Soares

12 · B. Condori

31 · R. Terrazas

30 · J. Alipaz

23 · L. Ali

91 · S. Plaza

7 · F. Suarez

17 · D. Cuellar

The Strongest

5-4-1

1 L. Banegas

27 Saavedra

4 M. Chiatti

5 A. Jusino

3 P. Pedraza

21 F. Quaglio

17 A. Estacio

30 J. Arrascaita

8 K. F. Salvatierra Flores

9 C. Ventura

26 G. Sotomayor

Coach · Carlos Paz Garcia Juan

Substitutes

12 · D. Valdivia

22 · W. Saucedo

24 · K. Adin Chacon Arrascayta

10 · R. Castro

15 · S. Arce

6 · J. Welch

16 · V. Cuellar

34 · S. Melgar

38 · J. Lazaro

99 · Pachu

36 · R. Ribera

40 · L. Cueto

Our number · real potosí winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

42% The market38%

Us42%

~~Market~~38%

We make Real Potosí a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real potosí win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Potosí win	42%	38%	+4
Draw	29%	26%	+3
The Strongest win	30%	36%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%	−11
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	71%	77%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	24%	34%	−10
Real Potosí or draw	70%	64%	+7
Real Potosí clean sheet	34%	–	–
The Strongest clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.7 8.7 5.2 1 10.7 13.3 6.8 2.6 2 7.8 8.4 4.6 3 3.6 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Potosí down, The Strongest across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,576 Primera División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.6% of games this season, across 163 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Potosí at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). The Strongest away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Real Potosí, 1.10 for The Strongest. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~THE 0–0 REA · THE 1–0 REA · REA 1–3 THE

Form · last six in Primera División

REAL POTOSÍ

DDLDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0

THE STRONGEST

LWWWWW1–3 · 4–3 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 5–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Always Ready	20	+34	45
2	Bolívar	20	+32	45
3	The Strongest	20	+17	42
4	Oriente Petrolero	21	+10	33
5	Real Potosí	20	+13	32
6	Aurora	20	+4	30
7	Guabirá	20	−7	29
8	Blooming	20	+8	27
9	Nacional Potosí	20	+2	27
10	Independiente Petrolero	20	−8	25
11	Real Oruro	21	−16	24
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	21	−19	21
13	ABB	21	−15	20
14	Universitario de Vinto	21	−15	18
15	Real Tomayapo	21	−24	17
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	20	−16	14