Real Potosí v Independiente Petrolero prediction · Primera División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real PotosíDrawIndependiente Petrolero

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Potosí 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Potosí are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Potosí 59%, draw 25%, Independiente Petrolero 16%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Real Potosí v Independiente PetroleroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Real Potosí win59%

Draw25%

Independiente Petrolero win16%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Potosí

Independiente Petrolero

9Days since last match10

Last match: 21 Oct · Copa de la División Profesional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real potosí winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Real Potosí a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Potosí v Independiente Petrolero~~1.72 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 26 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 38 v 26~~4 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Potosí win	59%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Independiente Petrolero win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Real Potosí or draw	84%	–	–
Real Potosí clean sheet	46%	–	–
Independiente Petrolero clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%

0123450 9.2 6.0 2.5 1 13.6 11.3 4.2 2 12.0 9.1 3.6 3 6.9 5.3 2.1 4 3.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Potosí down, Independiente Petrolero across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,589 Primera División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera División matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 176 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Potosí at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Independiente Petrolero away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Real Potosí, 0.77 for Independiente Petrolero. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~IND 1–2 REA · REA 0–5 IND · IND 2–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera División this season · since 26 Aug

REAL POTOSÍ

LDWWWW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO

WLLLLD3–1 · 0–4 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolívar	22	+34	51
2	Always Ready	22	+35	48
3	The Strongest	22	+17	45
4	Real Potosí	22	+15	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	+10	34
6	Aurora	22	+3	31
7	Guabirá	22	−10	30
8	Blooming	22	+7	28
9	Nacional Potosí	22	+1	28
10	Real Oruro	22	−15	27
11	Independiente Petrolero	22	−10	26
12	Universitario de Vinto	22	−14	21
13	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	22	−20	21
14	ABB	22	−16	20
15	Real Tomayapo	22	−23	20
16	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	22	−14	17